The Bear is on a Romp

                                            

 

6.3.12 - SPY 1 Year Daily

Price Action is at the lower support levels of the Regression Channel, however, the SPY is below the 89 Day Moving Average and the 20 Day MA is under the 89.  These indicators suggest a bearish tone to the market.  On Balance Volume is in decline which is bearish.

 

 6.3.12 SPY 20 Day, One Hour Chart

The 20 Day trend is down.  MACD is in the Red.  OBV is in decline.  While the market is near support in the Regression Channel, there are lots of signs of weakness.

  

 6.3.12  SPY - 20 Day, Hourly, Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands demonstrate expanding and contracting Volatility.  Option prices increase as Volatility increases and decrease when BBs contract.  This chart show expanding BBs suggesting indicating that Volatility is increasing leading to a presumption that the move to the downside could accelerate. 

All of this is speculation on my part and written mostly in order to keep a journal of my thoughts on the market as we move along in time.                  

                 

The Bear Is Back

• 

The One Year Daily on the SPY shows a Longer Term Bearish Pattern.  The 10/30 Moving Average has moved to the downside.  MACD is red.  OBV is Bearish.  ADX indicate a strong trend to the downside.

And the World Goes 'Round!

• There is Symmetry and Art in the Markets

12.21.11 SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 13/34 Day Moving Average - Fundamental Range Analysis and Moving Average Crossover study.  On Balance Volume moving up which is Bullish.  Bullish crossover to the upside on the Moving Averages.  This looks Bullish to me.  What do you think?

Pot Odds - What's your roll?

 VIX at Low, SPY at High - Time for a Pause?

VIX-SPY 3 Month, Daily - Time to Return to the Mean?

Giddy Bulls!

 Laughing all the way to the Bank

 

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 10.11.11 - Pressing resistance.  A pull back followed by a follow up assault on resistance would not be unexpected.

Bull or Bear?

 At Resistance but Signs of Momentum

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 10.7.11 - Trend is Up but SPY at Resistance.  A Break above Resistance would be very Bullish.  Monday and Tuesday could make the difference.

Bottom Drops Out!

 Down, Down, Down

 SPY 9.23.11 - Gap Down - OBV Bullish

Approaching Trendline Resistance

 Pending Assault on Trendline

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 9.13.11 - Range Bound Trading Pattern is Dominant.  MACD and OBV are rising and bullish.  Descending Trend Line offering Resistance to Further Advance.  Price Action is a Mid Range.  Technicals offer little help on direction from here.

Well Now? What do you know?

 Surprise, Surprise!

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 9.12.11 - PPS Reversal Signal, Bottom of the Range, Pessimistic Sentiment -  "Time for a Rally"

Support vs Over the Cliff

 Turning Point - Up or Down?

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 9.9.11 - Technical Analysis has its Moments.  This is a Moment.  SPY price action is at support and at the same time we can see a "Lower High" from 3 Days ago.  That is Bearish to a Technician.  The Risk in this market is both to he upside and downside.  On Balance the move appears to be to the downside.