Friday, February 13, 2009

Bear Potato Day 4 - "Most of the Day was Spent in the Devil's Den." - see sidebar for info.
10D, 30m. - Feb. 13 - The 30m. chart was giving bullish signals and moved into the Devil's Den threatening the prevailing Bear Potato.  As mentioned often positions taken in the Devil's Den are higher risk.  The more conservative move is to wait for confirmation on the 60 minute chart.  There is even greater risk if the "internals" do not support the direction of the move which was the case today.  
10D, 60m. - Feb. 13 - As seen here in the Gold Spot, there was no confirmation of the bullish move.  In fact the Bear Potato was even reaffirmed when the final candle fell below the 10D MA.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 13 - Today was mostly chop with trading in a narrow sideways range.  The internals were weak which did not support any "JA" plays.  
3M, Daily - Feb. 13 - The Bear Potato prevails on the Long Range 3M chart.  At the present time we have Long and Short Range Bear Potatoes (which means if you are a contrarian, the market will go up).

Thursday, February 12, 2009

I Fooled Ya, Did'nt I?  When you least expect the Bull came Roaring Back!  But ...???
2D, 5m. - Feb. 12 - Lots of volatility which has become commonplace in the market.  Very unpredictable pattern of behavior today.  Multiple plays to upside and downside if your nerves could stand it.  Three "JA" plays possible.  Totally 'out of the blue' Sneak Attack in the last hour of trading that took the day back to the close of yesterday.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 12 - End of the day rally threatens the current Bear Potato.  This must be confirmed on the Hourly before it is "Official."  The current 30 minute Bear Potato could have been shorted at $86.50 and the 60 minute at $85.00.  An easy 3+ points could have been gained on both trades.
10D, 60m. - Feb 12 - The Bear Potato prevails as long as the 10-30 MA Crossover is not confirmed on the Hourly chart.  Jump the Gun trades have proven risky in the past.  This Hourly Bear Potato could have been shorted at $85.00 on the 10th. and an easy 3+ point gain could have been gained.
3M, Daily - Feb. 12 - Longer term the Bear Potato is still in force (Gold Spot).

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Bear Potato Day 2 - Feb. 11 - The Bear Potato Prevails on a Sideways Day.  "Paper Cup in the Parking Lot" market activity.
3M, Daily - Feb. 11 - Longer range Bear Potato (Gold Spot).  Keeping the longer range in mind as we trade shorter term is important when it comes to staying power commitment.
5D, 30M. - Feb. 11 - Sideways movement is bracketed by the Black Lines.  Most of todays activity was at, above, and below the Pivot (Blue Line).  The Bear Potato prevails although the close was inside the Devil's Den (see sidebar for definition).
10D, 60m. - Feb. 11 - Again the sideways movement is noted.  The market did close within the Devil's Den which was also seen on the 30 minute chart.  Recent lows are also subject to challenge should the market go down on Thursday.  Potatoes usually last more than 2 days.
2D. 5m. - Feb. 11 - Very narrow range of action today.  No significant "JA" trade recognized.  There are not a lot of clues as to where the market will go tomorrow.  News events seem to have big impacts.  Uncertainty persists as to what the government will do and what the results of that action might be.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Keeping a Long Term View in Mind is Important.  Either the Bull or the Bear is in charge at any given time.  The following chart vividly demonstrates the volatility in the stock market over the last 10 years.  The dramatic collapse since last October is highlighted in Gold.  The pungent question of the moment is where is this falling knife going to bottom out?
10 Year, Monthly - SPY
The Bear is Back with a Vengence!  "Just be on the right side of the trade." - Shadow Trader
3M, Daily - Feb. 10 - The long term Bear Potato was threatened but fought off the attack.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 10 - The 30 minute chart gave up the Bull and converted to Bear with the Treasury announcement of a new & more extensive bank bailout without offering any specifics.  The resulted in a broad selloff secondary to all the uncertainties.  Internals were devastated.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 10 - The fall was so rapid that confirmation by the 60 minute timeframe almost made no difference and was technically slow to occur.  Obviously we do have a new Bear Potato confirmed on the Hourly.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 10 - Trending day down with no buyers in sight.  DOW was down 375 on very weak internals.  A mild rally occurred at the close.  This action would qualify as a successful "JA" play.  There was a lot of opportunity to profit assuming your being on the "right side of the trade."

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Monday, February 9, 2009

3M, Daily - Feb. 9 - The Long Range view needs to be kept in mind.  There has been a longer term Bear Potato that perhaps is being threatened with extinction.  The Channel depicts 6 up trending days with potential for a breakout to the upside.  Should this happen it would reinforce a bullish move within the longer range bear market.  What is seen above in the channel is, of course, our current Bull Potato in action.

Bull Potato Day 4 - The Bull Potato remains intact with a sideways consolidation day. Following two strong up trending days this should be bullish for Tuesday.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 9 - Channel outlines the Bull Potato.  The trend is still up.  Today (Monday) was a sideways day in which the SPY range was only 1.25 points.
5D, 30 m. - Feb. 9 - The 30 minute chart almost gave up the 10D MA but recovered later in the session.  The Hourly was never really threatened easily preserving the Bull Potato.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 9 - The narrow range of today's market is outlined by the parallel black line.  The blue central pivot runs pretty much through the center.  Today's action was choppy.  The internals were not impressive which made the "JA" play risky.

Friday, February 6, 2009

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VIX - Feb. 6 - There was significant divergence in the VIX in the latter part of the day relative to the bullish trend of the market.  The VIX (Volatility Index) is usually a contrarian index and ordinarily runs counter to the market.  With the market going up the VIX should be coming down.  In the afternoon the VIX went up at the same time as the market was going up.  This divergence does raise some questions as to the momentum follow through on Monday.



Bull Day 3 - Feb. 6 - Strong Bull Trending Day - Strong Internals in Control.
2D, 5 m. - Feb. 6 - Jack in the Box at the open made taking a position difficult.  The A/D's were 4:1 right from the start.  A/D's are more important at the open than is the UVOL/DVOL.  The opening was, in fact, a "JA" play but the "Out of the Box" made it hard to play.
5D, 30 m. - Feb. 6 - Strong trending market.  The Bull Potato has gathered strength and momentum.  Of course the weekend could lead to a change.  The close was relatively strong.
10D, 60 m. - Feb. 6 - The Bull Potato started at the Gold Spot.  There was a stumble on Wed. but it quickly recovered and has gone on to strength.
3M, Daily - Feb 6 - The Gold Spot shows a long term Bear Potato.  There is a little bullish move in the last few days.  Monday and Tuesday will be of interest to see if the momentum will hold up.