Monday, February 23, 2009

"Getta Way Doggie, I'm in Charge Here"
3 D, 10m. - Feb. 23 - Gap up at open stalled prior to 61.8% Fibo Line (Gold Spot) and fell back into a sustained move to the downside.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 23 - Fibo retracement of 23.8% gave opportunity for re-entry at 76 for a short with resumption of downward move into the close.  In a strong trending market retracement and reversal at 23.8% Fibo is common.  Internals were weak all session.
10D, 60 min. - Feb. 23 - 9 Day Bear Potato sustained.  Ten point variance in Potato.
6M, Daily - Feb. 23. - Nov. lows are challenged.  Longer term Bear Potato prevails (Gold Spot).  The larger question is what will happen when the lows are breached.  Will be get capitulation selling or just trend lower.  Of course a rally could occur but where is the economic or political news that would trigger that action.
Leonardo of Pisa "Fibonacci" - 12th. Century Italian Mathematician
2D, 10 min. - Feb. 20 - High/Low Resistance and Support is identified for the last five days and boiled down to two days.  Fibonacci retracement lines are drawn as above.  "Critical" level is 50% as to whether move is sustained or not.  That is around the 78.00 mark.  If the SPY goes above 61.8% (78.51) there is a high likelihood that the upward trend will be sustained.  If it drops back below 38.1% (77.48) it is more likely to fail and go lower.  Also note that this activity is all within the Devil's Den and caution is advised.  We still have a Bear Potato intact.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

2D, 10m. - Feb. 20 - If you put the Fibs. on a one day you get a different result.  From this you would expect the market to go up.  I am just trying to learn how to use these things so take it all with a grain of salt.
2D, 10m -Feb 20 - Fibonacci Retracement - Topped out at 50% (considered critical) - It is my understanding that according past performance and Fibonacci we can expect lower on Monday.  Don't count on it.  This is a new trial and error adventure for me.

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Friday, February 20, 2009

Washington has this solved.  How come you are so skeptical?  Just go back into your cave and leave us alone.
6M, Daily - Feb. 20 - Critical period in stock market history.  November lows are challenged.  Long term bear trend prevails.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 20 - "Bear Potato Day 8."  Devil's Den invaded but no penetration to the upside.  60 minute chart is in full charge.  The upward movement was turned back at the 20D MA.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 20 - The Bear Potato was not seriously challenged during the entire session today.  The best that the bulls could do was dance off the bottom of the 30 D MA which was not much.
2D, 10m. - Feb. 20 - Double tops and bottoms are pointed out in this chart.  These can be important reversal points in market action.  

Thursday, February 19, 2009

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Bear Potato Day 7 - "I think I ate too much!"
3M, Daily - Feb. 19 - The longer term chart continues to show a Bear Potato with even more downward movement (Gold Spot).  This is the Seventh Day of the Bear.  It is overextended (oversold) but there is very little in the economic or political news to support a move to the upside except for the market being "oversold."
5D, 30m. - Feb. 19 - It looks like a continued sideways day but in reality it was a trending day to the downside just dragged out over several days.   Today was weaker than Tuesday & Wednesday.  There was a "Gap Up" to start but the bulls could not support it.  The rest of the day was trending lower with periodic retracements.
10D, Hourly - Feb. 19 - "Bear Potato Day 7."  In the seventh day we have a 7 pt. swing meaning that if you bought into the Potato on day one, you would have had a 7 point change in the SPY.  4 Puts on the SPY at .50 Delta could have yielded a profit of $1400.  There are a lot of shouda/coudas in that equation but dreams are dreams.
2D, 15m. - The usual picture shown is a 5 minute chart.  Of interest today is that the 15m. chart demonstrates the "double bottoms" and "double tops" that can be so helpful in recognizing "reversals."  These seem most evident on 10 & 15 minute time frames.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Two Days of Sideways Uneventful Market Inaction.  Does that Tell us Something?  Yes!  To me, "This tells us that we don't know where we are going.  We as a nation and economy are walking through a mine field just trying our best to tip toe along trying not to get blown up.  We have Washington on the one side with platitudes and rhetoric and the market reality of economic collapse staring us in the face.  The "Market is the Market" and it will tell us the "Truth."  If there is optimism the market will go up.  If there is pessimism it will go down.  The Trend is Down!
6M, Daily - Feb. 18 - This is an important chart.  It shows the longer term down trend and the potential that November lows might be breached.   If that happens we could go a lot lower.  This is not just a "trader's concern."
10D, Hourly - Feb. 18 - "Bear Potato Day 6" - Two days of inaction and no direction.  We are in an extended Bear Potato that exceeds the usual longevity of a Potato but these are extraordinary times.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 18 - Totally sideways movement with no real opportunity to trade.  The Potato remains Bearish.
2D. 5m. - Feb. 18 - Two  Days of Watching Grass Grow or Paint Dry.  A Breakout up or down would be expected.  The Bear Potato is overextended but the general news is not Bullish.

The Bears are into Big Time Fishing!

The Bears are into Big Time Fishing!
6M, Daily - Feb 17 - The November Lows are close to being challenged.  There is a 4 week long Daily Bear Potato that has been in effect since Jan. 15th.  The Internals were very weak on Tuesday.  There was a very weak close as well.