Tuesday, April 7, 2009

"Where, O'Where, Do We Go from Here?"
2D, 10m. - Apr. 7 - Gap down followed by a narrow range day.  Weak internals entire session.  Market trended lower but with little momentum.  There was extreme weakness at the close as can be seen in the Tall Red Candle.
10D, 30m. - Apr. 7 - The 10 Day chart shows the dominant Bull Channel.  The market closed at the low of the channel.  You can appreciate the continuation of the gradual down trend that extends back through the previous three sessions.  Is this a Bear Trend mixed in with the dominant Bull Channel.  The weak close today suggests weakness tomorrow, but we know from experience that that is far from being a sure thing.
3M, Daily - Apr. 7 - The Bull Channel prevails on this longer term chart.  The Price Action is above the Moving Average Fast Line (10 Day).  Note the Black MACD during this bullish phase and the CCI remains high in the range.  The "Trend is Your Friend", but all trends come to an end sooner or later.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Magical Market Momentum Moves!

"Like a Genie Out of the Lamp, the Market Maintains Momentum!"
2D, 10m. - Apr. 6 - Today's session was spent mostly in the Devil's Den which is usually associated with turbulence and intraday reversals.  Today was no exception to that observation.  The Internals were weak and yet the market behaved with incredible strength even though the morning was characterized by a down trending market.  The afternoon session was very different.  Notice all the Tall White Candles which emphasize the bullish nature of the afternoon activity.  The Channels tell a picture story of today's market behavior.
10D, 60m. - Apr. 6 - The Bull Potato survived a day of weak internals and was saved by an afternoon rally during which the Bear were chased into the woods.  The market ended above the 10D Moving Average which preserved the technical requirement for a Bull Potato.  Again the perilous nature of the Devil's Den is mentioned.
3M, Daily - Apr. 6 - The Trend Continues to be Your Friend.  The Bull prevails on the longer term chart as well.  In spite of general economic problems the market seems to anticipate better times are ahead.

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Friday, April 3, 2009

"This is Too Good to be True.  Am I sure I can Handle It?"  
2D, 10m. - Apr. 3 - In spite of weak internals the market held on for additional support and gain.  The market continues to absorb bad news and seems to anticipate "better days ahead".  This may be true but caution is advised.
10D, 60m. - Apr. 3 - The "Windsock" proved correct.  In fact it is not even being changed by today's market.  The same tangential is simply projected on what had been there yesterday.  The price action remains on the top side of the Bull Potato.  The Action Buttons remain on "Go."
3M, Daily - Apr. 3 - "The Trend is Your Friend."  The Channel continues to ring "Bull Speed Ahead."  From past experience once you feel that in your emotions it will turn on you like a rattlesnake.  Keep your stops tight.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

"Bullish Market Action in the Midst of Travail"
2D, 10m. - Apr. 2 - Gap up with little momentum, follow through after that.  Divergent MACD noted during session outlined by Gold Spot.
10D, 60m. - Apr. 2 - Inconsistent Moving Average crossovers in last few sessions makes Potato calls difficult.  At the moment we are Bullish.
3M, Daily - Apr. 2 - Bullish on this  intermediate chart with Channel clearly to the upside.
"Windsocks are Fundamental to Safe Takeoffs and Smooth Landings"
10D 60m. - Apr. 1st. - Todays channel is trending up, however, the Moving Averages are in a variable mode whipping back and forth flirting with the Devil's Den.  While the Windsock is Bullish caution is advised.  As the Shadow Trader says, "Let the market show its hand."

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

"Devil's Den Trading is Treacherous"
2D, 10m. - Apr. 1st. - Gap down followed by parabolic gap close and trending day up with snap downs and snap back ups.  Very volatile trading.  Quick roll overs of the moving averages.
20D, 60m. - Apr. 1st. - No definitive bull or bear potato with the price caught up in the Devil's Den which creates high risk trade situations.
3M, Daily - Apr. 1st. - Even on the 3 Month Daily we are in the Devil's Den.  More can be found int the sidebar on our interpretation of the Devil's Den and the problems it presents with Potato Trading.  This is a transitional zone that does not lend itself to confident decision making.   It is problematic in stimulating premature trades that "jump the gun" and do not work out.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

"Gimme a Break."
1D, 10m. - Mar. 31st. - The Market is the Market.  It defies all reason.  Every indication was that the market would sell off and it Gapped Up and continued to go up only to collapse in the last hour.  I am sure that a lot of people are suffering from Whip Lash and seeking remedies (including myself).
20D, 60m. - Mar. 31st. - Potato Theory called for a "Down Day" based on failure of the 60 minute MA crossover.  Today the price action challenged this to the point of death.  In the end the theory held up but only after all the faint of heart had headed to the barn.
3M, Daily - Mar. 31st. - On the 3 Month, Daily we find ourselves in the Devil's Den.  This calls for extreme caution as the market is very fickle in this area (from our experience).

Monday, March 30, 2009

"Solutions in Retreat"
2D, 15m. - Mar. 30th. - Gap down followed by gradual decline.  Take note of the Double Bottom near 2:30 PM.  This was a clear signal for a bounce.
10 Day, Hourly - Mar. 30th. - "Potato Peelings" has been devoted toward trying to make a science out of market cycle behavior.  The Hourly 10/30 MA has clearly been violated.  Potato theory would call for a continued movement to the downside.  We have on rare occasions been proven wrong but it is still more often true.  So, the Potato Trader takes a position at this moment to project that the market will go down.

3M. Daily - Mar. 30th. - "V" formation for Victory but we are approaching Resisatance at the next level.  The Drop today was significant and tomorrows reaction to that will be interesting.  Our suggestion is "don't be too sure" until the market shows it hand.

Friday, March 27, 2009

"The Market is Very Reactive to the Actions in Washington."
2D, 15m. - Mar. 27th. - "Failed New Lows" and "Failed New Highs" are opportunities for entry.  A "Double Bottom" or "Double Top" is a Failed continuation of the move.  In other words "Failures" can actually spell "Success" for the Trader.
1D, Tick Chart - Mar. 27th. -  Tick chart shows market movement by Ticks and not by Time.  This can be used in combination with Regression Channels and FNHs and FNLs to spot entry points.  More information is available on request.
20D, 2 Hour - Mar. 27th. - Bull Potato Day 11.  Today was a down day for the market but the Bull Potato remains alive and well.  There are Bearish clouds on the Horizon but for now we cannot count the Bull as being down and out.