Sunday, December 6, 2009

Breakout vs Breakdown as Resistance Has Held Out?


The Market is at Resistance - Can the Bulls Breakout to Higher Ground and Stay There?


20 Day, 90 min. - Dec. 4 - Range Bound market prevails between Support and Resistance.  Who will win out over time?


3 Month, Daily - Dec. 4 - Trend is up as price action is in the upper levels of the channel.  Market has been very volatile for the past 4 weeks with frequent gap ups and gap downs.

1 Year, Weekly - Dec. 4 - Trend has been bullish since March '09.  Corrections have been expected for at least 2 months but have failed to occur.  The bulls remain in charge until chased off the field.  It is so important to assess the market in multiple time frames (the longer is the more reliable).

Friday, December 4, 2009

Correction Underway as Market Retreats at Close


The Market Calls for Caution - Direction Uncertain


2 Day, 10 min. - Dec. 3 - Gap up followed by Pull Back and then Cascade Losses at the Close.

The Ping-Pong pattern presented yesterday continues to play out.  The Close was decidedly Bearish and could mean further declines and correction ahead.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Unusual Market Behavior


Ping Pong in the Market


With no chart clutter the chart is Ping Pong.

From Order to Disorder - Throwing Darts

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Dollar Decline Dominates the Market


Ten Dollars may become Five Dollars - That is the Issue


Dollar Chart shows the progressive decline in the value of the US Dollar - When the Dollar goes down in value, the price of commodities goes up.  Commodity related stocks in turn go up in value.  The Market as we see it today is built on Sand.

Today's Action - Gap Up into resistance (green line). A principle of trading is "If you keep knocking, you will break through."  Well, we will see.  Tomorrow is another day.


20 Day, 1 Hour - Dec. 1 - Range Bound market for the last two weeks.  The Market is at Resistance.  Breaking Through is the Mystery of the Evening.

The Gold Bugs are in 7th. Heaven


Flight to Safety May Have It's Limits!


Gold has been a  big winner in the market.  There are limited ways to spend it, it pays no dividends, and it costs money to store it and haul it around.  Sooner of later this Gold Rush will run out of gas.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Market Responds to Arabian Nightmare


Alladin's Lamp Lights the Way!  Dubai Blow Up Causes Headaches!



Weekly Pivots show a widened potential for volatility.  The projection demonstrates the Central Pivot, the Top Line is Resistance, the Bottom Line is Support.  Past performance would lead to expectations that Price Action would be between 108 and 114 this coming week.  Technical Analysis is not a Crystal Ball.  It is a Windsock.

Friday, November 27, 2009

A Little Beat Up, but I'm Not Dead Yet!


Thank God for Bounces & Band Aides

Trade Page demonstrates false divergences as the large Gap Down created atypical patterns as the market recovered and the UVOL/DVOL stayed in reverse.  This is understandable considering that most issues were down so an trade volume had to go into declined issues.

3 Month, Daily - Nov. 27 - Trend is Bullish on this intermediate term chart.

20 Day, 30 min. - Nov. 27 - Sideway Channel is Range Bound.  Which way will it break?

2 Day, 5 min. - Nov. 27 - Large Gap Down secondary to market concerns over Dubai World default on debt.  Reaction proved overdone and there was a nice 50% bounce.  Monday is a new week so "We will see.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

From Ugly to Uglier!

I Think this is Gonna Hurt
Market turned Ugly following the Close on Wed. Dubai wants delay in Debt payments related to Dubai World which is actually bankrupt. The government of Dubai has seized the operation rattling the European and world banking system.
From Ugly it only got Uglier as the Futures continue to plummet. Friday is a half day of trading but it could prove very volatile. The DOW is down 185 at the time of this posting.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Long Term is the Best Bet!

Even though we are different, we can still get together! The Market will sort out the difference.
1 Year, Weekly - Nov. 25 - Long Term trend is Bullish. It pays to pay attention.

Monday, November 23, 2009

"Look Guys, I'm Just Looking for a Place at the Table"

In Spite of Everything We Do, the Bulls Just Keep Giving Us Grief!
Monthly Pivots - Important Levels of Support and Resistance - Yard Markers in the Market.
Weekly Pivots - The Center line is the Pivot. The Upper line is Resistance. The Lower line is Support. Week to week and month to month we have been Bullish. Will it continue. That, Dr. Watson, is the question.