Pivot Points & Trends - "The Bulls are in Charge"

We are not to be denied. Bulls Control the Action! A Bear when Injured is the Most Dangerous
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 22 - Long & Intermediate Term the Trend is decidedly Bullish since March. There have been a couple of dips to the Support Line but the Bull Trend has been maintained. All of this in the face of continued fundamental belief that the Market was Overbought and due for a Set Back or Correction. The latter has not happened.
Monthly Pivot Points - Oct. 22 - Pivot Points have progressively advanced with prior month price action falling precisely into the Pivot Point Range of the following month. It has been very "Military" as in "Following Orders." That in itself is of concern because the market is not a marching band.
Weekly Pivot Points - Oct. 22 - Again the same symmetry can be seen as Pivot Point Brackets are progressively advancing based on the prior weeks actions and following up in anticipated reaction. Also take note of the PPS "Short - Long" signals. These have been right on the money.
2 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 22 - And finally the action of the day is at hand. The Trend is Bullish so our outlook for potential trades is to the Bullish side. The short term action has suggested a pull back mode. We are not in too big a hurry to commit. Let the market show it's hand. There is a Snap Back Up in the RSI and CCI confirmed by a PPS buy long signal at 11:40 AM. This combination was perfect for a trade to the upside either short or intermediate term. The results in the market proved this to be true.

How Long Can the Party Go On?

The Bulls can celebrate as they continue to dominate the market since March. There are signs that their strength and momentum is wearing thin. At the same time this has been the conventional wisdom for some time and the Bull keep roaring back. Every time there has been a correction or pull back the Bulls have defended the market. We cannot discount what the market is telling us. As traders we have to deal with the cards that are dealt.

1 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 21 - We have been introduced to a new indicator called the PPS available from ThinkOrSwim on the TOS charts. As seen above there was a very clear "short" signal at a critical moment. The PPS is an indicator we need to keep an eye on.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 21 - This 20 day chart is very interesting. It demonstrates the bullish trend that is dominant over the last two weeks, but also shows the challenge to support within the channel. The "Monthly Pivot" has been breached. Will this lead to further decline or will the Bulls, as usual, come to the rescue?

1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 21 - The Channel Trend looks like a Kentucky Long Rifle. The Price Action is still high in the Channel. Short term it looks like a pull back but longer term the indications are that the Bullish Trend will prevail.

"I'm On Vacation !"

"The Bulls are So Busy, Why Should I Bother"

2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 16 - Option Expiration Day on Crack. Tricky Stuff.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 16 - By comparison stability and consistency can be found in the longer term chart.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 16 - Bulls cannot be denied. You may think the market will or should go down, but the reality is it keeps going up. Of course, this will not last forever, but when is a big question. We have no crystal ball. The market is "overbought" but it can remain that way for a long (financial) time.

The Money Goes Round & Round while the Dollar Goes Down & Down!

There is currently an inverse relationship between the Bull Market and the Decline in the Value of the United States Dollar. This has not always been true historically, but has been the case since March. The market appears concerned about impending inflation. Commodities have increased in value. Bonds have very low yields. Real Estate values have been in decline. The Stock Market has become the alternate of choice for parking money.

1 Year, Weekly - U.S. Dollar has been in decline since March of this year. The above chart is a mirror image of the S&P 500 chart. As one goes down the other goes up.
1 Year, Weekly - SPY (S&P 500) - Flip it over and you have the Dollar.
Trade Page - Oct. 15 - Early in the day the ADs showed advances while the UVol/DVol was divergent. Later in the day both came together for a Bullish finish. It is difficult to have confidence in taking a position when these two important indicators are not in tandem. It has been our experience to sit and wait out inconsistencies. Otherwise, it it just a guess.
5 Day, 15 minute - Oct. 15 - An important trading rule is to not take a position contrary to the trend. When done the trader has the odds stacked against potential success. Why try and swim upstream when it is easier to go downstream. Look for entries that are consistent with the trend. This applies to short as well a longer term trades. A common problem is to see short term indications of a trade that look appealing only to realize in hind sight that the positions was contrary to the trend. Just make a rule "not to do that."

"I Got Some Questions"

"All I Want is Love, Love, Love! All I Get is Bull Shot!"

The Trade Page - Oct. 14 - The Market Gapped Up. Of interest is the gradual decline in the A/Ds while the UVOL-DVOL went straight up.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 14 - Is the Trial Balloon for Real? It would appear to be legitimate.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 14 - Bullish Trend is what is so Impressive!
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 14 - Bullish Channel Trend Prevails

Too Hot to Handle!

The Aftermarket has taken off on Intel earnings and expectations. This would appear out of proportion to normal market behavior. Perhaps there is more to it that we mortals cannot yet understand.

"Wow! What's next now that I'm airborne?"

20 Day, 2 hour - Oct. 12 - Breakout above the 107 resistance line with less than exuberant follow through. The next step is to confirm or deny a new upswing in the market. The breakout at this point is somewhat like a "fish out of water." The new move needs to establish support to go forward.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 12 - The Gap Up was followed by a sideways day that fell off in the afternoon. Volume was light and the market lacked gusto to the upside.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 12 - Bullish Channel Trend with RSI & CCI giving significant trade signals.
1 Year, 2 hour - Oct. 12 - Long term trend remains Bullish. Short term trades should not be make without having the bigger picture in mind.

Range Bound or Breakout to the Upside?

"Home. home on the range, where the Bulls and Bears do Play----"

20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 9 - The important technical chart at this juncture is the 20 Day which shows the range in which price action has been confined of late. The market is poised to either bounce down off of resistance at the 107 level or break above and set in motion a move to even higher levels in near future. Indications continue to appear that support a pull back or correction but the bulls remain persistent in supporting the market.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 9 - Sideways action for two days that represents consolidation after a previous gap up. This pause could easily result in a vigorous breakout to the upside. At the same time a correction down would be understandable given recent strength and options expiration later this week.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 9 - Bullish Channel Trend continues to be the dominant technical picture. The RSI and CCI are both on the rise and support upward momentum.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 9 - Longer term trend is up. The Channel has room within itself for bulls and bears to frolic but the general direction remains up.

You Never Know What's in a Golden Cup!

The Cup and Handle is an Important Set Up that should not be Ignored! It can be powerful!

2 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 8 - Significant gap up off of the Cup & Handle. The pundits said it was Alcoa earnings. Interesting how the market media looks of current new events to explain every market move. There is much more to it than that. Check out the next chart. The "Cup" had absolutely no knowledge of Alcoa.
10 Day, 60 min. - Oct. 8 - Cup and Handle formations is a favorite of O'Neill at Investors Business Daily. It can be a powerful indicator of breakouts. Not all Cup and Handles breakout but those that do may move with gusto.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 8 - The Three Month, Daily is one of my favorites. It is between long term and short term and can give trends from both perspectives. The overall trend here is up.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 8 - The Bullish Trend continues. RSI, CCI, and W%R all compliment each other on significant market reversals and bounces. Technical Analysis is important in removing emotions from trading. That goal can never reach 100%, but the less emotion and personal opinion expressed in trade decisions, the better. The ideal is to find a mechanical model that is without flaw. That is also impossible. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Bull Move Pending - Cup & Handle Begs Action!

Prominent Cup and Handle on 10 Day Chart. Upward movement expected if Price Action breaks above 106.

10 Day, 60 min. - Oct. 7 - Classic Cup & Handle with potential breakout above 106.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 7 - Bullish Channel dominate the visual. Note the RSI and CCI and Double Bottom at Support. These have been successful signals for trade action.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 7 - Today's sideways movement may have lacked excitement but the sideways movement completed the formation of a handle to the cup. This combination opens the opportunity to look for a break above 106 tomorrow. Should that happen the market may move up with gusto.