Showing posts with label Channels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Channels. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

The Bull - Bear Battle Continues

Range Bound Market Begging for a Demonstration Breakout
5 Day, 15 min - July 1 - The Channel Trend remains Bullish but there are undercurrents of Bear Unrest. Traders continue to get jerked around. This is excellent territory for Condor enthusiasts.
60 Day, 2 Hr. - July 1 - Long Term vs. Short Term = Sideways
/ZT-/ZN - July 1 - Two Year Treasuries vs. Ten Year Treasuries. There is a strong comparison of Treasury Rates and Market Action. Compare this Chart with the 3 Month Daily SPY below.
3 Month, Daily - July 1 - Recent erosion of upward trend closely parallels the Treasury rates which portrays the Money Flow. "Follow the Money."

Market Crossroad

Trends, Currents, & Cross Currents - Confusing Road Signs Abound
60D, 2 Hour - June 30 - When the picture is mixed short term, it is best to look at longer term charts. The Longer Term Trend remains up but there are significant indications that the momentum may be broken and we could head lower.
3 Month, Daily - June 30 - The Trend is Our Friend and should not be ignored. Always expect the market to do the unexpected.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Difficult Decisions!

The Market Continues in a Sideways Movement. The Situation Calls for Prudence.
30Day, 2Hour - June 29 - A Sideways day with little directional signals. Our Bear Put Spreads and Condors are in a sit and hold situation that demands close monitoring and management.
3 Month, Daily - June 29 - Herring Bone action calls for a "Sit On Hands" strategy as being appropriate.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Fork in the Road

Take your chances. The results are up for grabs.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 27 - Mixed signals with not directions that are apparent.
3 Month, Daily - June 27 - The longer term bull rally within a secular bear market is challenged by a move to the downside. Recent internals and market activity suggest an unpredictable week to come.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Critical Juncture in Market Direction

Mixed Signals on Market's Next Move
20 Day, 30m. - June 25 - Cross currents create a need for caution at this point. Our Bear Call spreads and condors are at risk as they are shaded to the downside. These positions call for close supervision in Friday's market. It would be nice to just be a spectator but when you are in, you are in. It now becomes a Risk Management game.
3 Month, Daily - June 25 - Bullish engulfing candle indicates a breakout to the upside from the recent declining channel. Friday's market action calls for very close attention of any market positions. A more clear direction in the market should be established before entering into new positions at this point. In other word, the situation calls for caution.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Keep the Big Picture in Focus

Neither Bull nor Bear has the Upper Hand at this Point.
30 Day. 2 Hour - June 24 - A new bear channel has not yet been violated. The immediate trend appears to be down.
3 Month, Daily - June 24 - Given the Channel seen above, any Play to the Long Side is Swimming Upstream.

Low Gear Downhill Channel Continues

A Great Time to Catch Some Fish.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 23 - The Channel to the downside continues to mature. The trend is our friend. Ignore it at your peril.
3 Month, Daily - June 23 - In this market it is best to keep our eyes on the bigger picture. In any new market direction there will be bounces and corrections. The overall trend, however, tends to prevail and we need to stay on the right side of that action. Swimming upstream just adds risk to any trade. The Trend is Our Friend. Stick with Friends for Success.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Bull Run Runs Out!

The Water is Just Perfect for Some Good Olde Bear Play.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 22 - Bear Channel under construction. Market points Down. Iron Condors and Bear Call Spreads are working out well in these conditions.
3 Month, Daily - June 22 - Very definite break in the longer term channel pattern. The secular Bear Market is rearing its head and a downside move is resuming.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

The Bears Muscle Back!

It time to come out of hibernation and do my stuff. Grrr!
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 19 - Support was broken and a leg down in forming. This is not a done deal as yet. The Bulls still have a lot of fight and have not gone into retreat as yet.
6 Month, Daily - June 19 - The Long Bull Run may be coming to an end. The Bulls could still save their situation but their hold on upward momentum is fragile at this juncture.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Sloppy Rudder & Volatile Market

Lots of Energy in Both Directions - Options Expiration Day
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 18 - Mixed signals at this juncture. Potential disappointed Bulls in Gold Spot. If market falls these people will have to cover by selling. On the other hand there are lots of Bears counting on more correction to the downside. Both cannot be Right.
3 Month, Daily - June 18 - Long Term Bull channel is being challenged with a little weakness and potential loss of support. The Bulls have had a way of roaring back again and again in the face of threats by the Bears.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Support Fails! The Trap Door Drops Open!

"A Little Fear in the Market is Reality Testing!"
3 Month, Daily - June 16 - The Longer Term Chart is more meaningful. Long term support within the Channel has failed opening up the trap door of downside movement. A new direction may well be underway.

Change But No Change! Bull Trend Continues!

Channel Trend remains Bullish in Spite of Monday's Correction.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 15 - Today's correction was overdue but the market remains in a narrow upward channel that has been in place for 3 months.
3 Month, Daily - June 15 - Todays market closed right at the Support line of the Channel. The price in now above the 200 MA. Bears need to be defensive and alert. Additional bull moves should not be unexpected.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

The Bulls Keep Turning Up the Meat Grinder!

"But, there are signs of significant Resistance at this Level. Caution advised!
5D, 15m. - June 12 - Pattern of Daily advance and decline with no particular breakout persists. Patience will be rewarded.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 12 - Bullish channel persists. Market is at levels of potential Resistance. A breakout above Resistance would be very Bullish and with expiration this week the shorts could really be squeezed.
3 Month, Daily - June 12 - Long Bull Channel is obvious. The Big Question is will it continue unabated or yield to Resistance?

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Bulls Don't Die Easily!

Conventional wisdom called for a pull back but the Bulls roared back.  It is not over 'til its over.
5D, 15 m. - June 8 - Gap down was followed by a late day rally and then a sell off.  For the last five sessions we have seen a sideways, range bound market.  A breakout from this range could well lead to more up or down.  Neither Bulls nor Bears have conceded defeat as yet.
30 D, 2 Hr. - June 8 - Longer term the Bulls still rule the Roost.  The Trend has not yet been changed from being Up.
3 M, Daily - June 8 - Range bound Bull Channel since Mid March.  No break in this pattern as yet.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Bull Run Continues with a Pause for Breath

Bull Run Since March 6th. Continues with Occasional Pull Backs for Rest
5D, 15m. - Jun 3 - Falling Window with Gap Down and a Closing Rally.  Trend remains up in spite of occasional sell offs.
30 Day, 2 Hour - Jun 3 - The Run continues with a Pause for Refreshment.
3 Month, Daily - Jun 3 - Bull run since March 6th. cannot be denied.  Close above the 200 Day Moving Average very Bullish if it holds up.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Bear Play Resumes

The Bears are Splashing Back into Action?  How long with they Stick Around?
2D, 5m. - May 21 - This was the second trending day to the downside in what has been anticipated as a long overdue correction or "pull back".  We had a nice put trade that went with the Trend.  Internals were weak and supportive of a bearish move in the market.
20D, 30m. - May 21 - Following the Channel Trends can be interesting.  It has been straight up for so long that a break has become exciting in interesting.  The Chart would suggest a rollover and a move to the South Side.  Support at the bottom of the Channel is critical for the Bulls.  Penetration of that level would be very Bearish.
3M. Daily - May 21 - Again we see a suggestion of a downturn and a break in the Trend.