Some Serious Study is Needed Here!

We seem to be at a crossroads.  Let's take a close look before jumping in too soon!

2D, 5 minute - May 11 - Today we had a break in the Bullish Trend.  There was a gap down followed by a mostly sideways day but with weak internals.  There was no aggressive selling and at the same time there was no strong Bullish effort to sustain the recent rally.  The day ended with a weak close.  The sideways action with lack of momentum kept us on the sidelines.  Our Time Decay Iron Condors performed well in this environment.
10D, 30 minute - May 11 - The current intermediate trend is easily demonstrated.  We did get a break below the ascending triangle that was suggested yesterday.  Today there was a gap down followed by a day of weak internals and no real momentum to recapture the Bull move.  While the market did close with a whimper there was no aggressive selling.
3M, Daily - May 11 - The Intermediate Trend remains up, but there is a suggestion of weakness with the break of the ascending triangle.  This would indicate that we may have some additional pull back.  There are no guarantees in the market.  "Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin, <>

Symmetry in the Market as in the Arts

"There is Symmetry, Grace, and Proportion in the Market as is in the Arts."

2D, 10m. - May 4 - Aside from the results of the market, it is important to observe the form of the market as it evolved.  There is a recurrent symmetry that frequently recurs that is "circadian" in its predictability.  Be on the lookout for this.  It happens often and can give suggestions for positive trading opportunities.
2D, 10m. - May 4 - A good trade was made today with Calls at 8:45 and a sell at 9:15 for a nice profit based on very positive internals and momentum in the market.  A specific target was set at one point above the buy point.  This filled and we had a 20% profit within 30 minutes.  The rest of the session was a slow grind up with much uncertainty and a sneak attack in the last 20 minutes.  It was with the last minute activity that the symmetry of the session was spelled out.
3M, Daily - Apr. 4 - The Bullish Trend Channel continues to move up in spite of anticipated resistance.  The "Maginot Line" that has been highly advertized for several weeks has proved to be more Swiss Cheeze and Warm Butter than solid substance.

"Sometimes the Best Defense is to Ball Up and Hunker Down"

"There is Nothing Wrong with a Passive Defense when Faced with Uncertainty."

2D, 10m. - Apr. 30th. - Early morning momentum led us into a trade to the upside which did not go well.  There was a nice move to the upside but it failed and fell back and the trade was stopped out with a small 25 cent loss.  From there the market continued its retreat.  The close was weak.
20D, 2 Hour - Apr. 30 - The Channel Trend continues UP!   The Trend is Your Friend so take care if you try and swim against it.
3M, Daily - Apr. 30 - Trend remains UP!.  Resistance sits like a lid on the market.  This has been highly touted as a Siegfried Line with iron clad defense.  That remains to be seen.  Perhaps the Hedgehog has it right.  Ball up and stay out of the way.

"It Might Have Been a Better Day at the Fairgrounds"

"Zippin' Pippin Day on Wall Street - Sneak Attack Over the Hudson!"

2D, 10m. - Apr. 27 - There was a roller coaster morning followed by a "Crack Cocaine" afternoon in the market today.  The internals weak at the outset due to the Gap down.  This was followed by some improvement only to have it fall apart in the afternoon with increased volatility.  Contributing to the morning gyrations there was a False Alarm of an errant aircraft over the Hudson that led to mass evacuations and anxiety in New York.
20D, 2 Hour - Apr. 27 - There is another wedge to contend with but this time it is neutral not yet tipping its hand as to direction.   The Channel Trend remains up.  The market is running into significant resistance at this level and may end up going sideways as it "Butt's Head."
3 Month, Daily - Apr. 27 - This chart clearly shows the Resistance Line and the Collision Course the market is on.  It reminds me of the joke about the "Battleship Trying to Stand Down the Lighthouse."

"The Bull Charged Back with Explosive Force"

2D, 10m. - Mar. 12 - Very strong trending move to the upside.  There were few pull backs and little opportunity for trade entry as the price moved up.  This is the 3rd. day of a new Bull Potato and it appears to have a lot of momentum.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 12 - Tuesday and Thursday (today) showed very bullish moves to the upside in very clear cut channels.  These channels once identified can be used to help make trade decisions.
10D, 60m. - Mar. 12 - Bull Potato Day 3 and fully confirmed with all activity above all Moving Averages.  Most Potatoes last from 3 to 6 days and sometimes more.
3M, Daily - Mar. 12 - Trend reversal seen as Bull Potato roars into action.  There is still a lot of work required to reverse the larger term Bearish Trend and Secular Bear Market.

Bull Potato Breakout

"Breakout in Action - Can it Lead to a Score"

5D, 15m. - Mar. 10 - Beautiful breakout with formation of a new Bull Potato.  This is the first real technical reversal move seen in the market in the last month of activity.  The big question is "can it be sustained?"
20D, Hourly - Mar. 10 - The Breakout (Gold Spot) is seen on this longer 20D time frame chart. Twenty days sounds like 3 weeks but it is really a month of four five day sessions.  This has been a long wait.  The channel is simply a down trending outline of the prolonged Bear Potato that has been in play all this time.  "Change" is a popular buzz word these days.  Perhaps we can see some "Positive Change."

No Safe Place to Land!

There is no clear support level for this market at this time.  It is just a guessing game to figure out where the carnage will stop.  It is very important in a market like this to keep multiple time frames in mind.  The market is the market and the charts will tell you where we have been and act as a "windsock" suggesting where it might go.
2D, 5m. - Mar. 9 - Today was an "Inside Day".  It started with a Gap Up but then retreated into a slow erosion for the rest of the session.  Friday's lows were not broken so there is hope that tomorrow will show some traction to the upside.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 9 - Market closed below all moving averages.  There was no real threat to the Bear Potato which has now lasted for 19 days.  A record in the lifetime of Potato Peelings.
10D, 60m. - Mar. 9 - Hourly chart simple reconfirms the continuation of the Bear Potato.  As in the 30 minute chart the close is below all significant moving averages.
3M, Daily - Mar. 9 - This longer time frame chart shows the continued down trend that has prevailed for 6 months.  The trend downward has actually accelerated in the last 5 sessions.

Predictions by experts as to where the DOW will go range from 6000 > 3000.  Take your pick.

New Six Year Low

"About Time Someone Bit Back!"

2D, 5m. - Mar. 3 - Fibonacci Retracement (resistance) held at 38 & 50% and then there was a good CCI signal for a "JA" trade to the downside (Gold Spots).
20D, 60m. - Mar. 3 - Day 15 of Bear Potato.  Close was at new lows of the past 6 years.
5M, Daily - Mar. 3 - Nov. lows did not offer support.  Close is at new 6 year low.  Trend continues to be down.  What more can be said.  The market is very oversold (note CCI) so short positions can be risky for option trading.

"Day 14 - The Bear Gets More Brutal with Age"

"The More I Get the More I Want.  See You Tomorrow!"

2D, Mar. 2 - Bear Day 14 - Brutal sell off during the entire session.  The Fib. retracements were put up at the open with the idea of testing the potential "Gap Close."  The 23.6% level (Gold Spot) was never really challenged.  The day closed at new lows.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 2 - Gap down with continued sell off with S-Curve decline into the close.  Symmetrical S-Curves are frequent phenomena in the market.
20D, 60m. - Mar. 2 - The brief "bullish fake out" of a few days ago was just that; a "fake out."  It will be ignored as we are now into the 14 day of a Bear Potato.  This is the longest lasting potato since we have been tracking this activity.
6M, Daily - Mar. 2 - The breach of the Nov. "low" is now market history.  We went through that like warm butter.  We have not significant support levels to look for that are within reasonable distance.  The market may well be in a free fall with no bottom to expect to bounce from.

Fibonacci Perspectives on Friday's Gap

"Graphic Display of Fibonacci Mathematics"

2D, 5m. - Feb. 28 - Fibonacci retracements of the last two days show a fizzle of upward momentum at just above 23.6% and did not exceed the next level.  This may well be significant as the market rolled over after that.  All of this is so evident in retrospect.   If our foresight could be as good as hindsight we would all be millionaires.  At the same time we need to use the tools we have and Fibonacci can help us.  Check the sidebar for more information on this remarkable 12th. Century Italian Mathematician (Einstein of his era).  At this point we are carefully looking at Fibonacci retracements especially as related to Gap plays.  Stay posted for for our results.