Some Serious Study is Needed Here!

We seem to be at a crossroads.  Let's take a close look before jumping in too soon!

2D, 5 minute - May 11 - Today we had a break in the Bullish Trend.  There was a gap down followed by a mostly sideways day but with weak internals.  There was no aggressive selling and at the same time there was no strong Bullish effort to sustain the recent rally.  The day ended with a weak close.  The sideways action with lack of momentum kept us on the sidelines.  Our Time Decay Iron Condors performed well in this environment.
10D, 30 minute - May 11 - The current intermediate trend is easily demonstrated.  We did get a break below the ascending triangle that was suggested yesterday.  Today there was a gap down followed by a day of weak internals and no real momentum to recapture the Bull move.  While the market did close with a whimper there was no aggressive selling.
3M, Daily - May 11 - The Intermediate Trend remains up, but there is a suggestion of weakness with the break of the ascending triangle.  This would indicate that we may have some additional pull back.  There are no guarantees in the market.  "Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin, <>

This is Just Hard to Bear!

"I Need to Sit Back and Think this Over.  Man, I am Out O'Breath!"

5D, 15m. - May 6 - Hind sight would suggest some good trades today.  In fact, taking a position was difficult and could easily prove a loser.  Volatility was significant.  The internals were strong at the open, then became weak only to strengthen later in the session.  The Trend remains consistently bullish and its directional bias cannot be ignored.  With the rally so mature and extended it is difficult to go long and at the same time it is difficult to go short when the Trend is up.
3M, Daily - May 6 - The Bullish Channel remains consistently UP!  There is even a shorter term bullish move within the Channel.  The MACD is rising on the Daily which is also Bullish.  Our attention today was directed at the Channel Trend, the Internals, the Frequent Intraday Reversals, the Inconsistencies, the MACD and the CCI.  The CCI on one occasion gave a nice "hockey stick high" on the 2 Day, 10 minute for a sell signal on a roll over.  Trades were entirely possible given the ranges seen, but timing had to be perfecto.

Follow the Cat into Midstream & Set the Hook!

Playing to the Behavior to the Prey is Part of the Sport

2D. 10m. - Apr. 28 - The SPY opened in the lower range of the Channel.  The Trend is up.  The first candles were up and the internals improved.  The MACD was trending up.  Call position was taken with anticipation of Gap Closure and movement to the centerline of the Channel.  Note the High Hockey Stick in the CCI that signaled to Sell Point.  We will call this the "Channel Cat Play."
10D, 30m. - Apr. 28 - The trade was followed on a longer term chart to maintain perspective on the overall strategy and market environment.  
3M, Daily - Apr. 28 - The Channel Trend is still up but the resistance lines are plainly visible.  The past week has been a sideways meandering.  A Breakout above or below these lines could be important indicators as to where the market goes from here.  Notice that the MACD is "very quiet which often precedes a breakout as in the Sleeping Tiger Play.

Sometimes a Wedge Gives You an Edge

"Is There a Wedge in Your Life?" - Go: www.chartpatterns.com

5D, 10m. - Apr. 23 - Compare this chart with yesterday's.  The Session closed inside the wedge or pennant that was drawn last night.  It just goes to show how trend lines and channels provide consistent yard lines to live and trade by.  You cannot play football and baseball without sidelines, yard lines, and baselines.  You cannot trade without close attention to the tools of the trade.

Today's session did not offer a lot of trade opportunities.  The internal were weak and the price action was choppy.  Days like this remind us that at times we need to sit on the side, be spectators, and wait for a better opportunity.  If you did well today, more power to you.  Sometimes, though, the best trade is "No Trade".
20D, Hourly - Apr. 23 - The Wedge and Channel continue to dominate this time frame.  The SPY is in the Devil's Den or Zone of Contention between Bulls and Bears.  Neither has retreated nor claimed victory.  The shape of the wedge displays a slight bias to an upside breakout.
3M. Daily - Apr. 23 - Bullish Channel prevails.  On the other hand the MACD is in decline and the CCI has receded to the zero line.  

The main lesson here is that we need to pay attention to the Big Picture even as we make trade decisions in very short term  time frames.  In the end all of the short term decisions made in the market make up the composite of longer term results.  Everyone has to decide what indicators and parameters work for them.  All of this is a continuing learning experience.

Your observations and comments are welcome.  This is not a political forum and comments of that nature will be rejected by the editor.

Tug O'War

"Pulling in Both Directions - Something Has Got to Give!"

20 D, 60m. - Apr. 22 -  This chart best demonstrates the Battle Ground for today (Apr. 23rd.)

The intermediate trend has been up as seen in the Channel above.  A minor trend of the last nine sessions has been sideways to down.  A Pennant shaped wedge has formed aimed at 85 on the SPY.  Breaking out above of below this wedge may be a telling sign of where we go from here.  The MACD is on the zero line.  The 8/21 MA is in the Devil's Den (undecided).  There is no clear bias that can be easily seen.  The market will in the end tell us what it wants to do.  We must be patient as we watch for market direction to materialize.  The Zone of Contention is between 84 & 86.  It could go either way.

A Day of Ups and Downs

"Who's in Charge of Punchin' the Buttons Anyway?"

5D, 10m. - Apr. 22 - It is a good thing to have a plan in mind as to how to approach the market each day.  The prior days highs and lows are important landmarks.  The Major Trend is very important.  Channel Analysis can be very helpful in avoiding trades that are "swimming upstream."  The Major Trend today is up and the SPY is in the lower level of the Channel.  It would make sense to look for a "bounce" off support.  This is exactly what we got, and the move was supported by progressively improving internals, a rising MACD  & CCI.  The market ran into Resistance on two occasions and dramatically fell back to support near the end of the session.  A nice profit, however, could have been made during the session assuming a disciplined exit.
20D, Hourly - Apr. 22 - Trading with the Trend can be the safer way to trade and is quite logical.  Yes, there are counter trend trades that are often profitable, but the odds of success are lower.  Use of Channel Check Analysis is a good basic strategy especially for swing trades over a two or three day period of time.  Establish a Channel that makes sense and note the higher resistance and lower support lines.  Consider appropriate trades and use stops to exit if the market goes the wrong way.  The market has a mind of  its own and we cannot tell it what to do.  Not every trade is a winner.  Albert Puhols does not get a hit on every "at bat" and we can't either.
3M, Daily - Apr. 22 - Longer term the Trend is Bullish.  We have had a minor downward trend for the past week with high volatility.  Use Channel Check Analysis and use Resistance and Support to help with trade decisions.  Get supportive data from the Internals, the MACD, the CCI, and the appropriate use of Moving Average Crossovers.  Technical Analysis is a blend of using Charts, Data, and Timing.  Trading is an Art and not simply a mechanical activity. 

The Sleeping Tiger Leaps Into Action on Que!

"As if a Bull is not enough to worry about.  Now they have come up with a Tiger."

1D, 5m. - Apr. 13 - The Sleeping Tiger hit on on cylinders for a perfect play.  The chart tells the story.  This was an actual trade that took place today.  Toni Turner explains this strategy on the Money Show.  He tutorial can be reviewed by clicking on the Sleeping Tiger in the sidebar.
20D, 2 Hour - Apr. 13 - The 20 Day channel remains bullish.  There has been considerable volatility along the way.  The MACD and CCI are well into positive territory and indicate an overbought condition for the moment.  This could result in a pull back which may only be temporary.
3M, Daily - Apr. 13 - The Bullish move has taken closer to Resistance at the 88 level.  There are numerous gaps that cry to be filled.  Continued volatility can be expected.  All indicators are Bullish for the short term.  Long term the trend is still Bearish.