Bear Play Resumes

The Bears are Splashing Back into Action?  How long with they Stick Around?

2D, 5m. - May 21 - This was the second trending day to the downside in what has been anticipated as a long overdue correction or "pull back".  We had a nice put trade that went with the Trend.  Internals were weak and supportive of a bearish move in the market.
20D, 30m. - May 21 - Following the Channel Trends can be interesting.  It has been straight up for so long that a break has become exciting in interesting.  The Chart would suggest a rollover and a move to the South Side.  Support at the bottom of the Channel is critical for the Bulls.  Penetration of that level would be very Bearish.
3M. Daily - May 21 - Again we see a suggestion of a downturn and a break in the Trend.

It's about time I got back into the act!

I've been in hibernation too long.  I'm coming out and I'm ready to fight.

2D, 5m. - May 20 - The market was relatively flat yesterday and started up on strong internals this morning but faded into a "symmetrical decline" and ended up with a bearish mode.  We made not trades as I have been on the sidelines with a carotid endarterectomy.  I want to thank all my family a friends for their support.  I am now back at home having spent one night at the hospital.
20D, 2hr. - May 20 - The market has had a dominant channel to the upside for the past 6 weeks.  It would appear that we have now developed a downward correction trend that seems significant.  This movement to the downside should be taken seriously.  At the same time the market has a way of confounding us by ripping up in the face of bad news.  Technically it would indicate a bearish tone at the moment.
3M, Daily - May 20 - Long Term Bearish, Intermediate Term Bullish, Short Term Bearish.  The Trend is our Friend.   It is out job to identify the trend of the moment and go with it.  Have a plan, stick to the plan, be disciplined and get out if it goes against you.  Defending our capital has got to be a number one priority.  If we have not capital, we have no trade.

I am glad to be back.

Temporary Surgical Leave of Absence

I plan to be back soon.

Great Trade, Snatched Away!

In the moment of expectation, it was snatched away!

2Day. 5 min. - May 18 - All systems were on Go.  The Internals opened on Fire.  The Trend was up.  The Trend Channel was established as being Bullish.  With discipline the trade was entered and then followed in an upward direction.  Appropriated stops were placed to defend the downside.  When everything look great a sudden "pick pocket" move to the downside stopped out the trade.  The disappointing thing was to watch the market rally back to the upside.
10D, 30m. - May 18 - A sudden jerk to the upside with atypical symmetry occurred today.  Tomorrow will require a correction to make it appear more natural.
30 Day. 2 Hr. - May 18 - Trend remains Bullish in spite of skeptics. 

Has the Market Got Your Goat?

Markets go Up and Markets go Down.  Take your pick!

2D, 5m. - May 15 - Beautiful day with Trend to the downside.  A great trade occurred when the price action bumped against the top of the channel.  This was an ideal place to enter a Put.
5D, 30m. - May 15 - Have a plan and stick to it.  Do not deviate.  Discipline is number one!
20Day, 2 Hour - May 15 - The Trend is Our Friend.  Trust it!

"The Bulls Bounced Back, Will it Last?"

"I Just Love to Pull My Tricks on You Bears.  Ever See a Bull Dance!"

5 Day, 15 minute - May 14 - We had conflicting trends today and it made it difficult to commit to one direction or the other.  Intuitive feelings suggested that an upside move was underway but the Internals combined with other indicators and, in particular, the contrarian trends inhibited pulling the trigger.  The end result was an up trending day within a short term pull back trend.  Personally I could not see a low risk trade today and did not take a position.
20 Day, 2 Hour - May 14 - Intermediate Term Bullish Trend punctuated by a Short Term Pull Back Trend.  This contrasting persuasion in the market indicators made it difficult to commit.  The end result is that the price action is low in the channel.  Based on Trends alone this would suggest a Bullish Move on Friday.  A break below the channel would be very Bearish.
3 Month, Daily - May 14 - Keeping an eye on the longer term trends are important to you economic health.  

Thumper Shows the Way. Follow the Tracks!

Trend Lines and Rabbit Tracks have a lot in common.  They should make you look that way.

5 Day, 15 min. - May 13 - Our trade analysis of the day was based on observing the overall trend to begin with.  It was headed down.  We then followed the progress or lack of of the internals (A/Ds & UVOL/DVOL.  The momentum was down so we entered a Put Trade @ 89 on the SPY.  This was closed out at the lows of the day with the expert advice of my on board technical advisor who punched the trigger at the perfect time while I was absent.  We made $120 on this cooperative effort.  Thank you Maury.
3 Month, Daily - May 13 - The Intermediate Trend is Bullish.  There is a current Bearish Countertrend.  We need to be on our toes as to where we go from here.  The momentum is down but the market has a way a reversing very quickly.

Tracks & Trends Show the Way!

Tracks are tracks.  They do lead somewhere and it may be where you want to go.

5 Day, 15 min. - May 12 - The Intermediate Bullish Trend has been at least temporarily broken by a short term bearish move in the last two days.  The Internals and trend to the downside offered excellent opportunity for intraday trades.  On going Iron Condor trades have moved favorably in our Delta Neutral Portfolio.  One such trade has been featured in Condor Country near the lower end of the Blog.
20 Day, 2 hour - May 12 - Intermediate Trend continues Bullish.  There has been a corrective pull back in the last two days.  Momentum is centered at this time.  Support can be expected in the lower elements of the channel range.
3 Month, Daily - May 12 - The Bullish Move of the last 6 weeks has been impressive.  Of course, about the time that we think the road ahead is paved without curves, curves will develop.  It is hard to expect this Kansas Straight Highway to maintain this consistency.

Some Serious Study is Needed Here!

We seem to be at a crossroads.  Let's take a close look before jumping in too soon!

2D, 5 minute - May 11 - Today we had a break in the Bullish Trend.  There was a gap down followed by a mostly sideways day but with weak internals.  There was no aggressive selling and at the same time there was no strong Bullish effort to sustain the recent rally.  The day ended with a weak close.  The sideways action with lack of momentum kept us on the sidelines.  Our Time Decay Iron Condors performed well in this environment.
10D, 30 minute - May 11 - The current intermediate trend is easily demonstrated.  We did get a break below the ascending triangle that was suggested yesterday.  Today there was a gap down followed by a day of weak internals and no real momentum to recapture the Bull move.  While the market did close with a whimper there was no aggressive selling.
3M, Daily - May 11 - The Intermediate Trend remains up, but there is a suggestion of weakness with the break of the ascending triangle.  This would indicate that we may have some additional pull back.  There are no guarantees in the market.  "Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin, <>

Whiskers have a Purpose!

Playing a little Cat & Mouse can be fun.  Obviously an experiment!

2D, 5m. - May 8 - On most days the market either goes up or it goes down.  It is very common for the angle of trend is 20-30°.  We used the SPY futures to pick the open and prior to the open placed some 30° channels both up and down simulating a fork in the road.  The idea was to see which road the market took.  Well initially it took the high road and then retreated to the low road and eventually settled on a middle road.  The middle road, however, was a 30° up channel that was parallel to the original "whiskers" that we set up in the beginning.  The main point here is not how it worked but that we did have a "plan" and followed it with success.  The decision to "not trade" is just a important as the one "to trade" as both affect the bottom line.

On a more serious side we decided against a trade to the upside because the NASDAQ had such poor internals and was not participating early on with the S&P or NYSE.  There was a nice move to the upside in late morning that offered a good opportunity for gain.  The CCI showed a "snap back up", the MACD was rising, and there was a MA crossover to support a trade to the long side.
10 D, 3o min. - May 8 - The Channel remains Bullish.  There has been a perpetual Bull Potato since March 19th.  The MACD is Bullish.  The Price Action is at the center line on this 10 Day Chart.
3 Month, Daily - May 8 - The Channel Trend remains Bullish.  There is an ascending triangle that has formed in the past week which suggests the possibility of a short term pull back.  It is most likely that the market will remain in the channel even with a pull back which would indicate that the Rally has not run out of steam as yet.  The much Advertized Resistance has offered little to retard the advance of the market in the past week.