"Gimme a Break."

1D, 10m. - Mar. 31st. - The Market is the Market.  It defies all reason.  Every indication was that the market would sell off and it Gapped Up and continued to go up only to collapse in the last hour.  I am sure that a lot of people are suffering from Whip Lash and seeking remedies (including myself).
20D, 60m. - Mar. 31st. - Potato Theory called for a "Down Day" based on failure of the 60 minute MA crossover.  Today the price action challenged this to the point of death.  In the end the theory held up but only after all the faint of heart had headed to the barn.
3M, Daily - Mar. 31st. - On the 3 Month, Daily we find ourselves in the Devil's Den.  This calls for extreme caution as the market is very fickle in this area (from our experience).

"Solutions in Retreat"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 30th. - Gap down followed by gradual decline.  Take note of the Double Bottom near 2:30 PM.  This was a clear signal for a bounce.
10 Day, Hourly - Mar. 30th. - "Potato Peelings" has been devoted toward trying to make a science out of market cycle behavior.  The Hourly 10/30 MA has clearly been violated.  Potato theory would call for a continued movement to the downside.  We have on rare occasions been proven wrong but it is still more often true.  So, the Potato Trader takes a position at this moment to project that the market will go down.

3M. Daily - Mar. 30th. - "V" formation for Victory but we are approaching Resisatance at the next level.  The Drop today was significant and tomorrows reaction to that will be interesting.  Our suggestion is "don't be too sure" until the market shows it hand.

"The Market is Very Reactive to the Actions in Washington."

2D, 15m. - Mar. 27th. - "Failed New Lows" and "Failed New Highs" are opportunities for entry.  A "Double Bottom" or "Double Top" is a Failed continuation of the move.  In other words "Failures" can actually spell "Success" for the Trader.
1D, Tick Chart - Mar. 27th. -  Tick chart shows market movement by Ticks and not by Time.  This can be used in combination with Regression Channels and FNHs and FNLs to spot entry points.  More information is available on request.
20D, 2 Hour - Mar. 27th. - Bull Potato Day 11.  Today was a down day for the market but the Bull Potato remains alive and well.  There are Bearish clouds on the Horizon but for now we cannot count the Bull as being down and out.

"Are We Smokin' Dope or Is This the Real Thing?"

20D, Hourly - Mar. 26th. - Bull Potato Day 11 - "Incredible" - A couple of months ago most Potatoes, Bull or Bear only lasted a few days.  Now we go for a much longer period, but sometimes with more volatility that can leave you with uncertainty as to direction.  The bias here is to the upside.  
5D, 15m. - Mar. 26th. - Lesson for the Day.  First determine the Channel establishing the Highs and Lows.  There is an art to this.  Determine the Trend and look for Reversal Points.  Reversal Points can be Double Tops or Double Bottoms or Failed New Highs or Failed New Lows.  In fact, a Double Top or Double Bottom is a Failed new High or Low.  The market either goes up or it goes down.  Assess the Internals such as A/D lines & Up Volume vs Down Volume."  Be on the right side of the trade.  These are the fundamentals of trading, but there is always so much more to learn to be consistently successful.

This Blog is devoted to helping our friends and contributors become successful traders.  We do not offer specific advice on investments or trades.  The Blog is an effort simply to distribute information that may prove useful to those interested in trading the markets.  It is solely directed to those interested in technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis.  We have no apology for that.

Should there be questions or comments, they are welcome.

Potato Trader

"Knock Down, Drag Out -  Who's on Top?"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 25th. - Volatile Day with significant "Double Tops" and "Double Bottoms" that have been recognized frequently as "Reversal Points" in market movement.  Also note the "Lower High" or "Failed New High" at 11 AM.  These are important signals that call for action to either Buy or Sell depending on position.  They should not be ignored.
10D, Hourly - Mar. 25th. - The Bull hangs on after a turbulent day in the market.  An incredible amount of political/economics colors the market activity.  It is more that just business as usual.
20D, 2 Hour - Mar. 25th. - Longer term the 10/30 Moving Averages have been invaded suggesting the possibility of a Bull Potato demise.  This remains to be seen.  In the past Bull and Bear Potatoes have generally sustained themselves without intermittent injury.  More recently we have seen threats and trauma inflicted but at the same time an ability to recover and move forward.  This does present some newer considerations as to Potato health.  Perhaps we need a "Potato Doctor."

Ups & Downs of Bull Riding

"Bull Markets are Not a Walk in the Park"

20D, 2 Hour - Mar. 24th. - Bull Potato Day 10.  Gold Spot highlights the turbulence within the last few days.  Political actions by the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury have been the major contributors.

"Back to Square One"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 24th. - This was a "Funny Day" in the market.  Yesterday was very Bullish with a strong positive move in the market.  It held up well until the last 30-40 minutes of the session when the bottom seemed to drop out.  But is this really a "bottom dropping out?"
5D, 3om. - Mar. 24th. - This Blog is devoted to recognizing the overall importance of recognizing the importance of Swing Trades associated with the ups and downs of the 10/30 Moving Averages.  With that in mind the Bull Potato is still intact.
20D, Hourly - Mar. 24th. - We are in an Intermediate Bull Move.  The two most recent stimuli to the market moving up were two government actions to continue to "Bail Out" banks and resolve toxic debt.  While solving these problems is welcome by all, there are also negative concerns about inflation as well as concerns about the health of the overall economic system. 
3M, Daily - March 24th. - The Bullish "V" Formation maintains viability at this time.  The Bull Potato is still in force.  The market remains above the 10/30 Moving Averages.

The Bull in a Full Charge

"The Bull Roars Back in to Action in a Big Way.  Bears Beware!"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 23 - There was a complete reversal of sentiment, direction, and momentum following the Treasury announcement of Private Investors being offered opportunities to buy discounted and guaranteed "Toxic Assets" from banks.  This appears to be a shared risk by government and the private sector to again bail out some bad decisions on the part of government as well as Wall Street.

The intraday market displayed a frequently seen pattern of symmetry.  There was an initial move up followed by a midday sideways (flat chop) activity followed by a resumption of the upward move which is often a mirror image of the morning activity.  That is what happened today.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 23 - The Bear Move of Friday which at first appeared so Solid vanished with the U.S. Treasury presenting a plan to "Privatize" the toxic debt of Banks.  The market welcomed this action with open arms.  The wiped out Bear Move is outlined in the Gold Spot.
20D. Hourly - Mar. 23 - Bear Potato gives way to the Bull Potato.  The Bernanke Bubble was followed by a decline which appeared at first to be a resumption of a move to the downside.  This has been followed by a U.S. Treasury decision to offer "toxic debt" owned by banks to the private sector with government guarantees or discounts (of course funded by the hard work and credit of the U. S. Citizen).  The market liked it all.
3M. Daily - Mar. 23rd. - "V" is for Victory.  There is a strong reversal that has developed over the last 10 days.  It was seriously threatened Friday and looked like a Cooked Goose until the Treasury deal turned things around.  Will this have a lasting effect?  We will watch, wait, and see.

"The Wounded Bull Fights Back"

"Treasury Action Spurs Reversal of Trend and Momentum"

10D, 30m. - Mar. 20 - The Windsock has shifted due to Treasury announcement of Toxic Debt financing by private investors.  It remains to be seen how lasting this can be in a volatile market.  We must always be ready to modify our positions as circumstances change.

"A Tug of War and Perhaps a Turning Point is at Hand."

20D, Hourly - Mar. 20 - The Bear Potato is confirmed by the move below the 10 & 30 Day Moving Averages.   At the close Friday the SPY sits right on the 50 Day Moving Average which may act as support on Monday.  The trend looks down but there could be a "snap back" bounce.  Should that occur it probably will only be temporary.  Bear Potatoes generally last  from 3 - 7 days and sometimes longer.  There have been a few "failed" breakouts but these have been few and far between.  The Channel shows the expected market direction for Monday/Tuesday.
5D, 15m. - Mar. 20 - The Gold Spot shows the area of breakout to the downside and the failure of the older Bull Potato to maintain momentum to the upside.  All moving averages have been violated.  The trend in down, but a snap back is possible.

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Educational Videos at the Fingertips

"You've Had Your Day.  Get Outta Here"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 20th. - The Windsock and Bull Potato Broke Down.  A New Bear Potato is in Charge.  Double Tops indicated Reversal Points in which a short trade could be taken.  These show up best on the 15m. charts and can often be seen clearly on the 10m. chart.  It is more difficult on the 5m. charts as there is too much business.

5D, 30m. - Mar. 20th. - There was a Double Breakdown of the Windsock and Bull Potato.  These area are highlighted as Gold Spots.  The action today indicates a significant Change of Direction (COD) and the creation of a new Bear Potato.  Potatoes tend to last from 3 - 7 Days.  Expect continued move to the downside next week based on Potato Theory.
10D, Hourly - Mar. 20th. - The Hourly Chart confirms the break down of the Bull Potato and creation of a new Bear Potato .  The support of the Windsock Channel as well as violation of all Moving Averages signals a new Bear Potato.
3M. Daily - Mar. 20th. - The General Trend Line (top line) is Bearish.  The Zig Zag Down, Up, Down is a typical decline, snap back, then resumption of the move downward.  The next significant point of support will be the last Hourly Low of 8 days ago.

"I got a New Deal in Mind.  Can We Split the Difference Like They Do in Washington?"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 19th. - There was Gap up in the AM that came off of the Fed move of Wed. to support Treasury Bonds, etc.  We then had a slow fade downward with two trade opportunities to short using the 15m. Double Tops as highlighted by Gold Spots.
5D, 15m. - Mar. 19th. - Windsock contained all activity of the day.  The lower support level was not seriously breached and apparently held up at least for the moment.  The Windsock remains Bullish.
10D, Hourly - Mar. 19th. -  The Hourly provides an element of security and reassurance as to market activity and stability as opposed to 5, 10,15 minute time frames.  Anxiety can be calmed by checking on the Hourly.  In this case we can see where the support of the Bull Potato is threatened at the close.  Tomorrow, as always. will be interesting.
3M, Daily - Mar. 19th. - Bull Potato Day 8.  The last candle ended in the Red closing at the low of the day.  Friday's activity will help determine the state of the Potato as we head into the weekend.

Potato Trader

"Is this Just a Bernanke Bubble or Something Bigger?"

2D, 15m. - Mar. 18th. - Today was a Fed Bubble day with a dramatic response to the announcement that they (the Fed) would buy up to 1 Trillion Dollars of US Treasury Bonds & Morgage Securities.  Whose money is this?  The market responded dramatically.  Sounds like another bailout to me and this time the Fed is bailing out the United States of America.  If I am wrong on this please let me know.  Looks like "Funny Money" to me.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 18th. - The range remained within the Windsock which I now find very helpful to use along with the Swing Potato Theme.  The Bull Potato is preserved by another whopping commitment of money to shore up a problem racked economy.  Technically notice how the market activity remained within the Windsock going from bottom to top.  It even bounced off the top and retreated.  The Windsock which is a trend channel of the Bull/Bear Potato swing has proven helpful in making good trades and avoiding bad ones.  Comments on this are welcome.
10D, 60m. - Mar. 18th. - Bull Potato Day 7 -  The Fed move today help support the Bull Potato well above all Moving Averages.  The Windsock is up and everything is looking great.  This might be a time to expect a little rest.
3M, Daily - Mar. 18th. - Seventh Day of the Bull.  The Daily is approaching the 50 Day MA which has often proven significant resistance but once breached can turn into significant support of a further move to the upside.  Tomorrow, as always, will prove interesting.

Potato Trader