"Market Chemistry @ Work"

Mixture of Financial Factors make Market Price Action a Day to Day Proposition.

US Dollar Pulls Back from Short Term Rally.  There is no Defined Trend in the Dixie which helps to confound expectations for what is next.

When there is Doubt as to Direction, it pays to look at he Longer Term Charts.  The SPY (S&P 500) remains in an Up Trending Channel.  When there are short term doubts as to direction, the 6 Month Daily can provide a more solid foundation as to what to expect.  In this case it is Bullish.

Mathematical Odds Favor the Upside

The "Bell Curve" can work in the Market as Well as Elsewhere when it comes to the Laws of Probability.  (Click on the Graphics to Enlarge View)

SPY 6 Month, Daily - 3.26.10 - The limits of the "Regression Channel" seen above represents "One Standard Deviation" from the price range since the middle of Feb.  The Channel is Trending Up.  There is a 68.2% chance that the market will trade between the upper and lower limits of this channel.  This is not a guarantee, but those are the mathematical odds at the moment.  In general longer range charts are more reliable as to Trend as compared to shorter range charts and patterns.  The Solid Lines are Pivot Points with the upper and lower bars being Resistance and Support for the Week.  This week the Pivots suggest a Higher Market is in store using mathematical equations within a Technical Analysis framework.