Saturday, May 2, 2009

"Decisions are Made by Necessity"

When the way is not clear, you still need to make a decision.  Technical analysis requires that you use the information at hand and make the most of it.  This is an imperfect science but at times you need to take what is at hand and take a position.  That is what we have here.
6 Month, Daily - May 1 - The recent market has been demonstrated over and over as a continuing gradual upward movement with a 10% gain in the market just in the past month.  The rising trend line is running into significant technical resistance at the 88-90 level on the SPY.  The 2 month trend line has been up.  Resistance looms above.  Prior resistance and a sideways movement is history.  The market does have "symmetry" about it.

Out prediction is that that a sideways, range bound market will prevail for next couple of months which should make a perfect environment for instruments like condors.

Overhead Resistance Important to Market;s Behavior

"Resistance Looms Overhead - Beware the Dog"
3 Month, Daily - May 1 - The Channel remains Bullish but the market is confronted by significant overhead resistance.  The strength or weakness of this resistance will be very important as to market behavior in the next couple of weeks.
20D, 2 Hr. - May 1 - The Wedge formation combined with a neutral MACD could result in an explosive breakout in either direction.  The market on Friday was very volatile with reversals and whip lash activity.