Strong Dollar - Weak Market!

The Market is at a Crossroads. The Bull Rally has been fueled by a Weaker Dollar in the last 5 months. The Dollar now is up and the market is backing off. How long? Who knows?

2 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 30 - Moving Average and MACD Crossovers signal change in direction in market.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 30 - Intermediate chart shows Moving Average Crossovers coinciding with MACD Crossovers. RSI and CCI topped out as well. The lower support line in the Channel has been breached. This portends further decline this coming week.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 30 - Longer Term the Trend is still Bullish. This may remain so but shorter term call for more defensive action by the Bulls. Bears should be happy.

Follow the Bouncing Bull!

You Thought I was Down for the Count - But Here I Am!

6 Month, Daily - Oct. 29th. - Monthly Pivots can be Important Milestones providing Lines in the Sand relative to Support and Resistance. They are powerful tools in helping traders manage within predictable boundaries. The chart above clearly shows the present market at Support with Potential for moving back into a Bullish Mode. On a month to month basis you can appreciate the stair step advancement of the market.

Dollar Up - Market Down

All of a Sudden the Dollar Gets Respect

The Dollar Rallies and the Market Tumbles

The Two Charts are Mirror Images

3 Month, Daily - Oct. 28 - Market declines but is right on Support Trend Line.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 28 - Yearly Chart is also on Support. Failure at this support line could lead to significant additional decline. Bulls should be cautious and defensive.

The Bear is Back and Wants a Big Bite!

"We Bears Know an Opportunity when We See It."

10 Day Chart - Oct. 27 - Corrective Trend Channel is shown above. Significant and critical technical support is at the 105 level. A break below that would be very Bearish.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 27 - Scalloped advance along the Support Line.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 27 - The Centerline appears to be Support for this Bullish Trend Channel. Technically it is important for preservation of the Bull Rally for this support to hold.

The Bear is Back! There is no Free Lunch!

"Just When I Thought I Had it Made"

20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 26 - Weakness displayed itself today in that support failed to hold at the trend line (rectangle). Lack of support could lead to a lower opening and further decline.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 26 - Long term the market remains bullish. Decisions need to take into account market behavior in all time frames.

Market Action Tied to Dollar Decline in Value

The Dollar has been in continued decline for 6 months. The general equity market action has been a mirror image of this decline. Huge spending by the government has raised concern and probability of impending inflation. So far the Fed has held interest rates near zero.

6 Month Decline in the Dollar.

6 Month Rise in the S&P 500

20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 23 - Weekly Pivots displayed in above chart. The past week demonstrated some topping action, but we have seen this before only to have the bulls jump in and buy the pull back. Will it happen again?

Pivot Points & Trends - "The Bulls are in Charge"

We are not to be denied. Bulls Control the Action! A Bear when Injured is the Most Dangerous
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 22 - Long & Intermediate Term the Trend is decidedly Bullish since March. There have been a couple of dips to the Support Line but the Bull Trend has been maintained. All of this in the face of continued fundamental belief that the Market was Overbought and due for a Set Back or Correction. The latter has not happened.
Monthly Pivot Points - Oct. 22 - Pivot Points have progressively advanced with prior month price action falling precisely into the Pivot Point Range of the following month. It has been very "Military" as in "Following Orders." That in itself is of concern because the market is not a marching band.
Weekly Pivot Points - Oct. 22 - Again the same symmetry can be seen as Pivot Point Brackets are progressively advancing based on the prior weeks actions and following up in anticipated reaction. Also take note of the PPS "Short - Long" signals. These have been right on the money.
2 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 22 - And finally the action of the day is at hand. The Trend is Bullish so our outlook for potential trades is to the Bullish side. The short term action has suggested a pull back mode. We are not in too big a hurry to commit. Let the market show it's hand. There is a Snap Back Up in the RSI and CCI confirmed by a PPS buy long signal at 11:40 AM. This combination was perfect for a trade to the upside either short or intermediate term. The results in the market proved this to be true.

How Long Can the Party Go On?

The Bulls can celebrate as they continue to dominate the market since March. There are signs that their strength and momentum is wearing thin. At the same time this has been the conventional wisdom for some time and the Bull keep roaring back. Every time there has been a correction or pull back the Bulls have defended the market. We cannot discount what the market is telling us. As traders we have to deal with the cards that are dealt.

1 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 21 - We have been introduced to a new indicator called the PPS available from ThinkOrSwim on the TOS charts. As seen above there was a very clear "short" signal at a critical moment. The PPS is an indicator we need to keep an eye on.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 21 - This 20 day chart is very interesting. It demonstrates the bullish trend that is dominant over the last two weeks, but also shows the challenge to support within the channel. The "Monthly Pivot" has been breached. Will this lead to further decline or will the Bulls, as usual, come to the rescue?

1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 21 - The Channel Trend looks like a Kentucky Long Rifle. The Price Action is still high in the Channel. Short term it looks like a pull back but longer term the indications are that the Bullish Trend will prevail.

"I'm On Vacation !"

"The Bulls are So Busy, Why Should I Bother"

2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 16 - Option Expiration Day on Crack. Tricky Stuff.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 16 - By comparison stability and consistency can be found in the longer term chart.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 16 - Bulls cannot be denied. You may think the market will or should go down, but the reality is it keeps going up. Of course, this will not last forever, but when is a big question. We have no crystal ball. The market is "overbought" but it can remain that way for a long (financial) time.

The Money Goes Round & Round while the Dollar Goes Down & Down!

There is currently an inverse relationship between the Bull Market and the Decline in the Value of the United States Dollar. This has not always been true historically, but has been the case since March. The market appears concerned about impending inflation. Commodities have increased in value. Bonds have very low yields. Real Estate values have been in decline. The Stock Market has become the alternate of choice for parking money.

1 Year, Weekly - U.S. Dollar has been in decline since March of this year. The above chart is a mirror image of the S&P 500 chart. As one goes down the other goes up.
1 Year, Weekly - SPY (S&P 500) - Flip it over and you have the Dollar.
Trade Page - Oct. 15 - Early in the day the ADs showed advances while the UVol/DVol was divergent. Later in the day both came together for a Bullish finish. It is difficult to have confidence in taking a position when these two important indicators are not in tandem. It has been our experience to sit and wait out inconsistencies. Otherwise, it it just a guess.
5 Day, 15 minute - Oct. 15 - An important trading rule is to not take a position contrary to the trend. When done the trader has the odds stacked against potential success. Why try and swim upstream when it is easier to go downstream. Look for entries that are consistent with the trend. This applies to short as well a longer term trades. A common problem is to see short term indications of a trade that look appealing only to realize in hind sight that the positions was contrary to the trend. Just make a rule "not to do that."

"I Got Some Questions"

"All I Want is Love, Love, Love! All I Get is Bull Shot!"

The Trade Page - Oct. 14 - The Market Gapped Up. Of interest is the gradual decline in the A/Ds while the UVOL-DVOL went straight up.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 14 - Is the Trial Balloon for Real? It would appear to be legitimate.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 14 - Bullish Trend is what is so Impressive!
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 14 - Bullish Channel Trend Prevails

Too Hot to Handle!

The Aftermarket has taken off on Intel earnings and expectations. This would appear out of proportion to normal market behavior. Perhaps there is more to it that we mortals cannot yet understand.