Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Head & Shoulders Resolves to the Downside

As Soon as the Party begins, the Bulls try to Horn In.
(Click on Images to enlarge)
3 Month, Daily - July 8 - Treasury Spread widens reinforcing the Bears. There is a flight to safety right now with money moving out of equities. Compare the Spread on the Left with the S&P on the Right. They are mirror images of one another confirming the downward move.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 8 - Trend is down. Notice the bounce off of the S-2 Support. We had the usual late day rally into the close which has the smell of voodoo.
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 8 - Trend Channel is Down. Close today was at the lower support of the channel. This suggests the possibility of a bounce on Thursday. MACD is Red (Bearish).
3 Month, Daily - July 8 - It is always wise to look at multiple timeframes. The longer term gives us a view of the action from 30,000 feet. The Channel Trend during the entire month of June has been Bearish and remains that way. This trend is confirmed in the Treasury Spread (/ZT-/ZN). This has proven so far to be a very reliable indicator and we plan to continue to use it as long as it remains reliable.