Monday, July 4, 2011

US Dollar Value vs. The Equty Market

 Dollar Up > Market Down - Dollar Down > Market Up
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.1.11 - A Strong Weekly Rebound with Break in Downtrend Line.  The Big Question now is Momentum (+ or -)
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.1.11 - Strong Upward Move with Break in Trend Line.  Price Action approaching Resistance.  Baring Negative News and Events the Momentum could Carry the Market to new Intermediate Highs.  A Stall at Resistance would result in a Failed Breakout and the Market would ball back into Range.
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 7.1.11 - Bull Potato until Proven Otherwise.  Price Action very strong on Top of 20 Day Moving Average without any Signs of Sideways Consolidation as yet.  The Three Day market pause for the 4th. of July adds a Wrinkle to the Momentum Question.  Technical Outlook would favor a Bullish Continuation with eventual Pause and Sideways Consolidation followed, perhaps, by a Pull Back in the next few days.  As pointed out above, at lot depends on the Dollar.