Saturday, July 30, 2011

Politics Trumps Technicals - "DC Square Dance"

 Market Awaits Political Compromise
SPY-VIX Digergence Chart - 20 Day, Hourly - 40 Day SMA - Interesting Crossovers may Confirm Reversal of Short Term (3-5 Day) Trend.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Just Waitin' on the SOBs to Make a Decision!

 This is Gettin' Ridiculous
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.26.11 - Range Bound in Weekly
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.26.11 - Range Bound on Daily

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.26.11 - Range Bound on Hourly

Trading Actions Hamstrung by Washington Inaction


Saturday, July 23, 2011

All Eyes on Washington - Markets in Limbo and Volatile!

 Debt Crisis and Debate goes On and On!
Markets do not Like Uncertainty

 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.22.11 - Range Bound but Bullish on Technical terms but Market is Very Subject to News Events
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.22.11 - Range Bound Back and Forth Price Action
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.22.11 - Range Bound Last Week with Market Holding its' Breath

Monday, July 18, 2011

Follow the Bouncing Ball

 Follow the Bouncing Ball
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.18.11 - Longer Term Charts are Fundamental to the Technical Analysis.  Longer Term is More Reliable than Short Term.  When Short Term is Confusing it Always Helps to Drop Back to Long Term.
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.18.11 - The Six Month Chart is Sideways and Range Bound.  Breakouts from this Pattern Could be Imprssive
SPY 20 Day, 2 Hour - 7.18.11 - Bear Potato Prevails - Considerable Resistance Lies Above.  The Market is Very Oversold and Due for a Bounce but Overhead Will be a Problem.

Friday, July 15, 2011

You Call it Patience - I Call it Fishing

 What Will Be, Will Be!
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.15.11 - Range Bound Market Dominates Pending Decisions in Washington - Bias Bullish
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.15.11 - Trend Channel is Up - Mid Channel in Position (Neutral)
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.15.11 - Bias Down to Sideways

Consensus: Mixed Picture on 2 Year, 6 Mo., and 10 Day would call for a Sideway Bias for Monday.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Slippery Slope

 Trickie Decisions
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.14.11 - Dipping into the Devil's Den
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.14.11 - Gappers Falling out the Sky
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 7.14.11 - Market Backing Off, Trend is Down

Monday, July 11, 2011

Market Weakness for Three Days

 "Defense"
 SPY 2 Year. Weekly - 7.11.11 - Price Action remains Above 20 Day Moving Average.
SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.11.11 - Volatile Price Action over Trend Line
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.11.11 - Three Days of Gappers with Close Under 50 Day Moving Average

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Stiring the Pot in Sideways Consolidation - Breakout Suspense!

 "Soup Surprise"
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.8.11 - Bullish Potato with Price Action above the 20 Day Moving Average.  If market falls below 132.50 in enters the 20/50 envelope, sentiment may be changing to the downside.  Otherwise the Action is Bullish to Sideways.
 SPY 6 Months, Daily - 7.8.11 - Price Action the last several days was very volatile with multiple gaps.  Gaps most often fill so this leaves a lot of possibilities for the coming week.  Aside from technical analysis, the market is very news sensitive.
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.6.11 - The 10 Day chart shows the Range Bound market of the last five days.  On the Hourly the Price Action is within the Transitional Zone "Devil's Den".  I call it that because it is fraught with danger to take a position in this zone.  The Market is Not Committed to a Trending Direction.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Good Call to the Upside!

 "I Sleep Light"
 SPY - 7.7.11 - Eight Days of Up calls for a Rest.
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.7.11 - Big Gaps can also Leave Pot Holes for Retreat
SPY - 7.7.11 - The Sleeping Tiger woke up with a Vengeance.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Waiting on the Breakout - "Sleeping Tiger"

 Just Say When!
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.6.11 - Rejection from Devil's Den (Bullish in favor of Move Up)
 SPY  6 Month, Daily - 7.6.11 - Sideways Consolidation inside Shade Rectangle.  Breakout could go either way.  Close at Upper Extent of Range is Bullish.
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.6.11 - "Sleeping Tiger Play" in the Wings.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Potato Trading is Pretty Simple - Just Ups and Downs!

 Could be Roll Over Time?
2 Year, Weekly - 7.5.11 - Short Term Range Bound - Dipping into the Devil's Den
 SPY 6 Months, Daily - 7.5.11 - Trend Line Break but will it Keep it UP?
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.5.11 - Very Narrow Range today.  After  5 Days of UP. a Down move could be anticipated.  Rally could run out of steam.

Monday, July 4, 2011

US Dollar Value vs. The Equty Market

 Dollar Up > Market Down - Dollar Down > Market Up
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.1.11 - A Strong Weekly Rebound with Break in Downtrend Line.  The Big Question now is Momentum (+ or -)
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.1.11 - Strong Upward Move with Break in Trend Line.  Price Action approaching Resistance.  Baring Negative News and Events the Momentum could Carry the Market to new Intermediate Highs.  A Stall at Resistance would result in a Failed Breakout and the Market would ball back into Range.
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 7.1.11 - Bull Potato until Proven Otherwise.  Price Action very strong on Top of 20 Day Moving Average without any Signs of Sideways Consolidation as yet.  The Three Day market pause for the 4th. of July adds a Wrinkle to the Momentum Question.  Technical Outlook would favor a Bullish Continuation with eventual Pause and Sideways Consolidation followed, perhaps, by a Pull Back in the next few days.  As pointed out above, at lot depends on the Dollar.