Saturday, May 9, 2009

Whiskers have a Purpose!

Playing a little Cat & Mouse can be fun.  Obviously an experiment!
2D, 5m. - May 8 - On most days the market either goes up or it goes down.  It is very common for the angle of trend is 20-30°.  We used the SPY futures to pick the open and prior to the open placed some 30° channels both up and down simulating a fork in the road.  The idea was to see which road the market took.  Well initially it took the high road and then retreated to the low road and eventually settled on a middle road.  The middle road, however, was a 30° up channel that was parallel to the original "whiskers" that we set up in the beginning.  The main point here is not how it worked but that we did have a "plan" and followed it with success.  The decision to "not trade" is just a important as the one "to trade" as both affect the bottom line.

On a more serious side we decided against a trade to the upside because the NASDAQ had such poor internals and was not participating early on with the S&P or NYSE.  There was a nice move to the upside in late morning that offered a good opportunity for gain.  The CCI showed a "snap back up", the MACD was rising, and there was a MA crossover to support a trade to the long side.
10 D, 3o min. - May 8 - The Channel remains Bullish.  There has been a perpetual Bull Potato since March 19th.  The MACD is Bullish.  The Price Action is at the center line on this 10 Day Chart.
3 Month, Daily - May 8 - The Channel Trend remains Bullish.  There is an ascending triangle that has formed in the past week which suggests the possibility of a short term pull back.  It is most likely that the market will remain in the channel even with a pull back which would indicate that the Rally has not run out of steam as yet.  The much Advertized Resistance has offered little to retard the advance of the market in the past week.