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SPY 6 Month, Daily - 1.29.10 - Trend Channel and Pivots are now heading South.  Time to adjust our thinking!

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SPY 20 Day, 2 Hour Chart - 1.29.10 - Weekly Pivots have shifted to the Downside.  CCI all in the Red.    Bias is down until proven otherwise.

US Dollar continues to Rally.  There has been an inverse relationship between the Dollar price action and the Market price action.

Look Out Belooooow!

It can get Drafty Going Down

SPY 6 Month, Daily - Support is breaking down at bottom of channel.

(Click Images to Enlarge)

DJX 6 Month Daily - Ditto

QQQQ 6 Month Daily - Ditto

RUT 6 Month, Daily - Not at support yet - Still some Hope?

A Fork in the Road? Bulls or Bears?

Breakdown Junction vs. Buying Opportunity?

6 Month, Daily - S&P Futures show break in support at the Regression Channel Support Line.  On this Monthly chart the price action is still within the Bullish Trend.

Weekly S&P Futures, however, shows a Breakdown at Support and an early attempt to establish a new Trend to the Downside.  The Price Action this week will be important as we determine the market direction at this juncture.  "Technical Analysis is a Windsock, not a Crystal Ball" - Carl Swenlin.

Politics Takes Center Stage!

Wall Street Responds to Political Sea Change!  What Else is There to Say?

The Market Rises as the Dollar Declines

Dollar Bear Market as the Printing Presses Run Wide Open.  Commodity Prices Rise which brings Upward Pressure on the Stock Market.   Funny Money Economy Prevails!

DX Futures (US Dollar)  Rally has failed and the Dollar is Back into a Decline Mode.  There has been an Inverse Relationship between the Dollar and the US Stock Market.

All Indexes in Tandem! Some More Volatile than Others!

The Index Charts Show Similar Patterns of Bullishness with some Variance in Volatility.  Projected Pivots help Point the Way.  There is no Crystal Ball but we do have our Indicators.  Keep you eyes on the Indicators and Not on the Price Action.  The Best Decisions are made when Emotions are Suppressed.  Flying by the Seat of the Pants can Lead to a Tail Spin.

DJX

QQQQ

SPY

RUT - Exhibits  a Volatile Pattern by Comparison

The Bottom Line is that the only Way to Learn this Business it to "Do It."

Pivot Gravitation at Work!

As in the Universe, there is a Gravitational Mathematical Pull Back to the Center of Activity!

5 Day, 15 min. - SPY - Rally Back to the Centerline.  The Trend is the Trend.  It pays to pay attention.

6 Monrh, Daily - SPY - 1.13.10 - Option Expiration is Feb. 19 -  Our Goal is 117 one week before expiration.  Option Spreads can be set up to aim to that goal.  Adjustment can be made to stay on course.

DX - US Dollar - Decline in Value Continues - At face value we ask how and why can the market move up when our Dollar goes down.  The answer lies in the fact that as the Dollar declines, commodities such as gold, oil, copper become more expensive.  Many stocks are affected by this increased value of  commodities.  In addition, as our government promotes and activates reliance on Monopoly Money, many people are anticipating inflationary side effects as time moves along,

Hat Trick - 1.13.10 - Iron Condor is progressing nicely.  This is a 4-5 week trade.  Adjustment may be needed along the way.  The idea is that the  market remains mostly sideways and money is made on Time Decay.

Sometimes the Market Seems a See Saw!

When the Market Seems a See Saw go to the Longer Time Frame for Perspective.

JA 12 - SPY - 6 Month Daily - The Pull Back today seemed significant at close range.  A longer term view as seen in this 6 month chart reveals that it was just a blip in a longer term Bull Move.  Put that in your Pipe and Smoke it.

Bull Start on New Year - Lead the Target - Buy on Pull Backs!

Take Aim at Your Expectations - Use the Indicators Wisely

Jan. 11, '10 - SPY - 5 Day, 15 min. - Bull Start to New Year - Trend is Up - Take Positions on Pull Backs to the Lower Regression Line.

Think or Swim SPY Chart - Buy below the Regression Line and Watch the CCI and RSI for Pull Backs to the Bottom Lines and Expect Bounces.

MNX - Mini Nasdaq - Bullish Trend but More Flat & Sideways in Last 5 Days - Watch for Pull Backs and Take Aim at Expectations within the Regression Channel.

"Value of the Dollar Sets Market Tone & Price Action"

Commodity Values are Directly Related to the US $.  Ripple Effects Seen in all Markets.

Falling Dollar Spurs Prices of Commodities (Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, etc.)

Higher Commodity Prices, Spur Market Indexes.  This is the SPY (S&P 500).  The same trends are reflected in all the major indexes.  In the above charts the horizontal lines represent the Pivots with upper and lower being R2 and S2.  For the most part, the price action has been between the Pivot and R2.  These ranges are important in making trade and investment decisions.  The February Pivots, for instance, are computer generated from current and past price action.  These data points create Probability Ranges into which more accurate estimate of direction is ascertained.  As in flying it is important to stay in touch with the Instrument Panel.

Cross Currents Create Uncertainty

When the Path is Unclear, Stop & Study the Situation

Our Featured Condor was Closed Out Today with a $800.00+ Profit.  It had reached maturity with expiration next week.  The Market behavior became erratic and volatile and we took our profit.  One rule to follow in trading options is, "Don't let winners turn into losers."

One Element of Our Condor was maintained as shown above.  This particular trade is dead center and has some additional profit potential.

With Condor setup we rely on Person Pivots and the Recession Channel to establish the Goal.  An Iron Condor is set up to reflect our expectations of direction and degree using these indicators.  The Recession Channel is actually a Bell Curve set to a linear scale.  There is a 68% Probability that the price will finish within the limits of the channel.

With Condors, "Keep the Ball in Play"

Iron Condors are an Option Spread that Buys Time for Profit - Just Mind the Store

Paper Profit of $886.00 with a $20 loss due to decreased Volatility - Still on Target for Bigger Gains - Theta is now 45.00 (Is that Greek?  Yes!) - You have to study Greek to Trade Options.

Monthly Pivots show the Condor on track to hit 115.00 by Expiration.

VIX (Volatility Index) is at a 6 Month Low - This is Bullish!

Something to Quack About!

Well, I'm Not a Condor but I Can Still Do My Thing!

Status Up $884.00!  Dead Center on Trade.  Goal is $1000.00 by Friday.

(Example only: "Not a Recommendation")

Pivot Points Can Help Plot the Course.

MNX Pivots over a 6 Month Period clearly show the reliability of these indicators.  The middle line is the Pivot.  The upper line is R2 and the lower is S2.  Price Action for the most part has been consistently between the Pivot and R2 in this Bull Rally starting last March.  "Keep the Ball in Play."

Smoking Condor

Our Bird is On Fire ~ Smokin' Up a Storm!

Paper Profit is Up to $835.00 -  Goal is $1100.00

Weekly Pivots are being Challenged at the Top Side.  Condor is Safe Between 107 & 117.  SPY is 113.

Monthly Pivots Show that Trade is Right on Track with Goal of 115.  Care is Required as the Market Moves into Higher Ground.