Thursday, April 23, 2009

Sometimes a Wedge Gives You an Edge

"Is There a Wedge in Your Life?" - Go: www.chartpatterns.com
5D, 10m. - Apr. 23 - Compare this chart with yesterday's.  The Session closed inside the wedge or pennant that was drawn last night.  It just goes to show how trend lines and channels provide consistent yard lines to live and trade by.  You cannot play football and baseball without sidelines, yard lines, and baselines.  You cannot trade without close attention to the tools of the trade.

Today's session did not offer a lot of trade opportunities.  The internal were weak and the price action was choppy.  Days like this remind us that at times we need to sit on the side, be spectators, and wait for a better opportunity.  If you did well today, more power to you.  Sometimes, though, the best trade is "No Trade".
20D, Hourly - Apr. 23 - The Wedge and Channel continue to dominate this time frame.  The SPY is in the Devil's Den or Zone of Contention between Bulls and Bears.  Neither has retreated nor claimed victory.  The shape of the wedge displays a slight bias to an upside breakout.
3M. Daily - Apr. 23 - Bullish Channel prevails.  On the other hand the MACD is in decline and the CCI has receded to the zero line.  

The main lesson here is that we need to pay attention to the Big Picture even as we make trade decisions in very short term  time frames.  In the end all of the short term decisions made in the market make up the composite of longer term results.  Everyone has to decide what indicators and parameters work for them.  All of this is a continuing learning experience.

Your observations and comments are welcome.  This is not a political forum and comments of that nature will be rejected by the editor.

Tug O'War

"Pulling in Both Directions - Something Has Got to Give!"
20 D, 60m. - Apr. 22 -  This chart best demonstrates the Battle Ground for today (Apr. 23rd.)
The intermediate trend has been up as seen in the Channel above.  A minor trend of the last nine sessions has been sideways to down.  A Pennant shaped wedge has formed aimed at 85 on the SPY.  Breaking out above of below this wedge may be a telling sign of where we go from here.  The MACD is on the zero line.  The 8/21 MA is in the Devil's Den (undecided).  There is no clear bias that can be easily seen.  The market will in the end tell us what it wants to do.  We must be patient as we watch for market direction to materialize.  The Zone of Contention is between 84 & 86.  It could go either way.