Back in Jail! Up in Smoke! "Fizzle, Fire, or Nothing?"

Smoke Can Be Fizzle, Fire, or Nothing!

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SPY - 10 Day, Hourly - 12.29.10 - There is a struggle to stay above the 20 Day Moving Average.  This could be Problematic as the market progresses.   The longer term trend is upward and cannot be ignored. There are some signs of Toppiness that require attention.  Proceed with caution!

The Bulls are in Control!

The Record Speaks for Itself

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SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.28.10 - Bullish Action Prevails with Price Action Above the 10, 20, 30, & 50 Day Moving Averages.  The Trend Continues to the Upside.  The Big Question is, "When do the Bulls run out of Bullets?"

Bullish Breakout from the Devil's Den

Bullish Breakout

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.27.10 - Price Action now Above the 10 & 20 Day Moving Averages.  Market Poised to Move to Higher Ground.

NO, NO, in the Devil's Den!

God Giveth, and God Taketh Away!  Beware of the Devil's Den!

SPY 10 Day. Hourly - 12.24.10 - Price Action has fallen into the Devil's Den of Dispute Between the Bulls and Bears.  In this Area the Outcome is a Toss Up.

Leave It Up to Santa at Christmas Time!

This is Not the Season to Trade!

Bulls and Bears Having a Happy Holiday Season!

A Vert Merry Christmas to All

Addendum - Long Term View

Historical Highs and Lows can be Important Points of Support and Resistance.  In this case it is Resistance.  Be Aware.

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SPY 5 Year Chart.  The Current Market is at a Signifiant Point of Resistance based on prior Points of Market Collapse.  it wll prove interesting to see how we navigate these shoals. 

Bulls & Bears Box It Out

5 Days of Punch and Jab

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SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.18.10 - Narrow Trading Range of 124.00 to 125.25 offered little movement for straight up intraday trading.  MACD and OnBalanceVolume charts show declining trend lines.  The Market is begging for a Breakout to "Show Its' Hand.

IFR Calls for "Indicator Discipline."

Complex Situations Call for Careful Analysis

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.16.10 - Narrow Range between 124.00 & 125.20.  High/Low is designated on the Chart.  This Market could go Either Way.

The Pot is Hot - Don't Get Burned!

"Devil's Den" Rules Apply

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.15.10 - Price Action is Between the 20 & 50 Day Moving Averages.  This is a recognized contentious zone.  Trading in this "Devil's Den" is only for the gambler and high risk speculator.  Indicators flip flop in an instance and clear trends and directions are hard to determine with reasonable outcome probabilities.  This has been the Potato Trader position for the last several sessions.  There is no reason the change at this point.  The safest position right now is to be a spectator.

Patience is the Play

"You Just Cannot Make a Fish Take the Bait.  Sometimes It is Just Best to Wait."

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 12.14.10 - Strong Resistance at 125.20 which represents a Lid on the Market.  This is a level that has become a challenge to the Bulls.  The Trend is still Bullish but there are signs of loss of Momentum.  The Moving Averages continue to show Divergence, but they are Following Indicators and reflect what "has happened."  The 20 Day Moving Average has been penetrated and puts the Price Action in the Devil's Den (DANGER).  There are signs that the Buyers have run out of Bullets, but as in the past the Bulls cannot be counted out.  They do have the Fed on their side.  As with GM, the Market is "Too Big to Fail."

Support and Resistance - Offense vs. Defense!

The Defense Won the Day - The Offense is in the Huddle

SPY 2 Day, 10 min. - 12.13.10 - Pullback as Anticipated in Yesterdays Blog.  The Longer Term Trend is Bullish.

SPY 1 Day, 10 min. - 12.13.10 - The Power of the On Balance Volume indicator associated with Price Action is Evident in this Chart.  There was a sideways action for the most part with a significant pull back late in the day.  Tomorrow is another question.  (Personal Opinion)  

There are Hundreds of Indicators available.  It is up to each trader or investor to pick and determine what works for them.  What is presented in this Blog is what I am currently interested in and trying to apply to my personal style of trading and investing.  I do not present this information as a formula for success to anyone else.  PB

What Goes Up Can Come Down!

Gravity Applies to Markets as well as it does to Roller Coasters

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 12.10.10 - 20 Day Moving Average continues to support more move to the Upside, but the move is getting mature.  Caution makes sense at this juncture.  Indicators remain Bullish but it Pays to be Defensive at Times.  Pullbacks may prove profitable.  US Dollar value needs close attention as the Market stays sensitive to its Price Action.

At Resistance - Can It Punch Through to Higher Ground?

Third Time May be the Charm at 124 on the SPY

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 12.9,10 - Overhead Resistance at 124.00 - Riding the 20 Day Moving Average.

Keep It Simple!

Bell Curve Shows Probable Deviations from the Mean!  The Market Behavior day to day is often governed by mathematical projections.  Traders should always pay attention to the Bell Curve Fibonacci projections.

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 12.7.10 - Price Action is at the 20 Day MA (Holy Grail).  There is a high probability of a bounce from this position.    The technicals remain bullish.

Patience!

It Takes Time to Catch a Fish!

SPY 3 Monrh, Daily - 12.7.10 - Breakout Deserves a Rest.

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 12.7.10 - Take a Look at the Bigger Picture.  One Day Does Not Make a Trend.  Technicals Remain Bullish.

Break for Air vs. Corrective Pull Back?

"Just Stepping Out for a Smoke, Thank Your!"

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 12.6.10 - No significant technical change.  Market remains bullish until proven otherwise.

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 12.6.10 - CCI Bounding Upward.  Trendline is UP.  On Balance Volume supportive of upward movement.

GOLD (GLD) 3 Month, Daily - 12.6.10 - At the High!  Bullish for Commodities.

That Was a Tiger Moment!

Breakouts are Something to Smile About!

SPY 3 Mo. Daily - 12.3.10 - Breakout to New High on the SPY.  The Trend is UP.  The 20/50/200 Moving Averages are all trending upward.  The On Balance Volume is Trending Upward.  Prior Overhead Resistance has been Broken. The Move Should be UP.

SPY 2 Day - 12.3.10 - Volume Profile shows a New Action Zone has formed beginning late Friday.  The "Action Zone" as of Sunday night is highlighted by AZS (Support), AZR (Resistance), and AZP (Pivot).  This is a dynamic zone in which the price action is currently active.  The Heavy Lines are the Person Pivots which are mathematic calculations based on past performance.  On Balance Volume shown on the lower chart is trending to the upside.  Price Action is above the 20 Day Moving Average (Yellow Line).  All indications suggest continued momentum to the upside.  Having said that, pull backs or corrections are quite possible and even probable.  The market does not move in a straight line.

Breakout as Called For!

Sleeping Tiger Awakes - Box Breakout as Paves Way for Upside Move!

SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 12.3.10 - Breakout over Prior Resistance Leave a Clear Field Ahead.  Any Pull Backs are Potential Buy Points.

Box Breakout Continues!

Fun Things Can Come Out of a Box!

SPY 20 Day, 30 min. - 12.2.10 - Prior Overhead offers Short Term Resistance.  If the Bulls can Absorb this effort to "Get Even", the Market May well move Higher.

Box Breakout - Where do we go from Here?

Pop Out of the Box - Could this be a Beginning?

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 11.30.10 - Breakout from Box to the Upside -  Is There Momentum Behind the Move?

Keep Your Eye on the Dollar - Is it Weak or Strong?

US Dollar Continues to Gain Strength.  In a Weird Way this is Negative on the Market.

DX-US Dollar-11.30.10- All Eyes on the Dollar-It Drives the Market

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 11.30.10 - Range Bound Market continues.  High of 120 and Low of 118 on the SPY.  Price Action today with a weak close suggest weakness at Support.  It remains to be seen if 118 can hold on the SPY.  So far the Bulls have supported and come Roaring Back at every Pull Back.

Situation Status Quo!

The Table is Open;  Take Your Choice!

SPY 3 Month, Daily - 11.29.10 - The Market is Range Bound in a narrow band on the SPY between 118.00 and 120.00.  Today the Price Action was contained in that Range.  The Market remains between the 20 and 50 Day Moving Averages which suggest lack of directional conviction.  The longer term trend is UP.  The odds are in that direction, but that is not a certainty.  Continue to watch for a breakout above 120 or below 118.  There is no divergence or difference in opinion expressed by On Balance Volume.  Volatility remains high so always expect the unexpected.