Monday, June 29, 2009

Difficult Decisions!

The Market Continues in a Sideways Movement. The Situation Calls for Prudence.
30Day, 2Hour - June 29 - A Sideways day with little directional signals. Our Bear Put Spreads and Condors are in a sit and hold situation that demands close monitoring and management.
3 Month, Daily - June 29 - Herring Bone action calls for a "Sit On Hands" strategy as being appropriate.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Fork in the Road

Take your chances. The results are up for grabs.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 27 - Mixed signals with not directions that are apparent.
3 Month, Daily - June 27 - The longer term bull rally within a secular bear market is challenged by a move to the downside. Recent internals and market activity suggest an unpredictable week to come.

Friday, June 26, 2009

Critical Juncture in Market Direction

Mixed Signals on Market's Next Move
20 Day, 30m. - June 25 - Cross currents create a need for caution at this point. Our Bear Call spreads and condors are at risk as they are shaded to the downside. These positions call for close supervision in Friday's market. It would be nice to just be a spectator but when you are in, you are in. It now becomes a Risk Management game.
3 Month, Daily - June 25 - Bullish engulfing candle indicates a breakout to the upside from the recent declining channel. Friday's market action calls for very close attention of any market positions. A more clear direction in the market should be established before entering into new positions at this point. In other word, the situation calls for caution.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Keep the Big Picture in Focus

Neither Bull nor Bear has the Upper Hand at this Point.
30 Day. 2 Hour - June 24 - A new bear channel has not yet been violated. The immediate trend appears to be down.
3 Month, Daily - June 24 - Given the Channel seen above, any Play to the Long Side is Swimming Upstream.

Low Gear Downhill Channel Continues

A Great Time to Catch Some Fish.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 23 - The Channel to the downside continues to mature. The trend is our friend. Ignore it at your peril.
3 Month, Daily - June 23 - In this market it is best to keep our eyes on the bigger picture. In any new market direction there will be bounces and corrections. The overall trend, however, tends to prevail and we need to stay on the right side of that action. Swimming upstream just adds risk to any trade. The Trend is Our Friend. Stick with Friends for Success.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Bull Run Runs Out!

The Water is Just Perfect for Some Good Olde Bear Play.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 22 - Bear Channel under construction. Market points Down. Iron Condors and Bear Call Spreads are working out well in these conditions.
3 Month, Daily - June 22 - Very definite break in the longer term channel pattern. The secular Bear Market is rearing its head and a downside move is resuming.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

The Bears Muscle Back!

It time to come out of hibernation and do my stuff. Grrr!
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 19 - Support was broken and a leg down in forming. This is not a done deal as yet. The Bulls still have a lot of fight and have not gone into retreat as yet.
6 Month, Daily - June 19 - The Long Bull Run may be coming to an end. The Bulls could still save their situation but their hold on upward momentum is fragile at this juncture.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Sloppy Rudder & Volatile Market

Lots of Energy in Both Directions - Options Expiration Day
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 18 - Mixed signals at this juncture. Potential disappointed Bulls in Gold Spot. If market falls these people will have to cover by selling. On the other hand there are lots of Bears counting on more correction to the downside. Both cannot be Right.
3 Month, Daily - June 18 - Long Term Bull channel is being challenged with a little weakness and potential loss of support. The Bulls have had a way of roaring back again and again in the face of threats by the Bears.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

New Bear Channel Under Construction!

This move gives us something to think about. Someone's trying to Kick my Bucket.
5 Day, 15 m. - June 17th. - Bear Channel forms with loss of support in Trend Line. Note the Double Bottom with Reversal (DB).
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 17th. - Bear Channel easily seen on this chart with breakout to the down side and loss of support in former Bull Channel.
3 Month, Daily - June 17th. - Nothing goes on forever. "Trade what you see, not what you think."

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Support Fails! The Trap Door Drops Open!

"A Little Fear in the Market is Reality Testing!"
3 Month, Daily - June 16 - The Longer Term Chart is more meaningful. Long term support within the Channel has failed opening up the trap door of downside movement. A new direction may well be underway.

Change But No Change! Bull Trend Continues!

Channel Trend remains Bullish in Spite of Monday's Correction.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 15 - Today's correction was overdue but the market remains in a narrow upward channel that has been in place for 3 months.
3 Month, Daily - June 15 - Todays market closed right at the Support line of the Channel. The price in now above the 200 MA. Bears need to be defensive and alert. Additional bull moves should not be unexpected.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

The Bulls Keep Turning Up the Meat Grinder!

"But, there are signs of significant Resistance at this Level. Caution advised!
5D, 15m. - June 12 - Pattern of Daily advance and decline with no particular breakout persists. Patience will be rewarded.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 12 - Bullish channel persists. Market is at levels of potential Resistance. A breakout above Resistance would be very Bullish and with expiration this week the shorts could really be squeezed.
3 Month, Daily - June 12 - Long Bull Channel is obvious. The Big Question is will it continue unabated or yield to Resistance?

Thursday, June 11, 2009

"The Shadow Knows!"

"Who Knows what Evil Lurks in the Hearts of Men?" - The Shadow Knows!
5 Day, 10 m. - June 11 - Reversal of prior performance Closes on a Down Note!
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 11 - Channel Trend remains Bullish although the past week has been Flat!
3 Month, Daily - June 11 - Three month channel trend is UP! This cannot be ignored.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

I Ain't Believing This. Your Bones Gotta be Loaded!

Sooner or Later One of Us Will Lose. Just don't go pull any tricks on me.
5D, 15m. - June 10 - Another "Carbon Copy" day with Gap and Fade followed by late day rally. Last five days have been sideways on balance. The situation calls for patience.
30 Day, 2 Hour - June 10 - Bullish Channel persists but all of June has been sideways. MACD declining.
3 Month, Daily - June 10 - Bullish Channel Trend continues. The Bulls and Bears are in intense competition trying to prove their point on Up vs. Down. The Momentum remains Up while a lot of technicals suggest it is time for a pull back. So far the Bulls always seem to rally to preserve their case and protect their territory.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Bull - Bear Standoff at the OK Corral!

The Market is in Battleground Mode.  Neither side has been able to sustain a breakout.
2D, 10m. - Jun. 9 - The session today was somewhat similar to yesterday.  There was give and take on both sides without a clear cut winner.
3oD, 2 Hour - June 9 - Bullish Trend Channel dominates the reality of the market.  Until this Bull cycle is demolished, it will prevail.


3 Month, Daily - June 9 - The Narrow range Bullish Channel has been the prevailing pattern for 3 months.  Prognosticators and experts continue to suggest a "pull back" or "correction.  So far, this has not happened.

Bulls Don't Die Easily!

Conventional wisdom called for a pull back but the Bulls roared back.  It is not over 'til its over.
5D, 15 m. - June 8 - Gap down was followed by a late day rally and then a sell off.  For the last five sessions we have seen a sideways, range bound market.  A breakout from this range could well lead to more up or down.  Neither Bulls nor Bears have conceded defeat as yet.
30 D, 2 Hr. - June 8 - Longer term the Bulls still rule the Roost.  The Trend has not yet been changed from being Up.
3 M, Daily - June 8 - Range bound Bull Channel since Mid March.  No break in this pattern as yet.