Sunday, November 29, 2009

Market Responds to Arabian Nightmare


Alladin's Lamp Lights the Way!  Dubai Blow Up Causes Headaches!



Weekly Pivots show a widened potential for volatility.  The projection demonstrates the Central Pivot, the Top Line is Resistance, the Bottom Line is Support.  Past performance would lead to expectations that Price Action would be between 108 and 114 this coming week.  Technical Analysis is not a Crystal Ball.  It is a Windsock.

Friday, November 27, 2009

A Little Beat Up, but I'm Not Dead Yet!


Thank God for Bounces & Band Aides

Trade Page demonstrates false divergences as the large Gap Down created atypical patterns as the market recovered and the UVOL/DVOL stayed in reverse.  This is understandable considering that most issues were down so an trade volume had to go into declined issues.

3 Month, Daily - Nov. 27 - Trend is Bullish on this intermediate term chart.

20 Day, 30 min. - Nov. 27 - Sideway Channel is Range Bound.  Which way will it break?

2 Day, 5 min. - Nov. 27 - Large Gap Down secondary to market concerns over Dubai World default on debt.  Reaction proved overdone and there was a nice 50% bounce.  Monday is a new week so "We will see.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

From Ugly to Uglier!

I Think this is Gonna Hurt
Market turned Ugly following the Close on Wed. Dubai wants delay in Debt payments related to Dubai World which is actually bankrupt. The government of Dubai has seized the operation rattling the European and world banking system.
From Ugly it only got Uglier as the Futures continue to plummet. Friday is a half day of trading but it could prove very volatile. The DOW is down 185 at the time of this posting.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Long Term is the Best Bet!

Even though we are different, we can still get together! The Market will sort out the difference.
1 Year, Weekly - Nov. 25 - Long Term trend is Bullish. It pays to pay attention.

Monday, November 23, 2009

"Look Guys, I'm Just Looking for a Place at the Table"

In Spite of Everything We Do, the Bulls Just Keep Giving Us Grief!
Monthly Pivots - Important Levels of Support and Resistance - Yard Markers in the Market.
Weekly Pivots - The Center line is the Pivot. The Upper line is Resistance. The Lower line is Support. Week to week and month to month we have been Bullish. Will it continue. That, Dr. Watson, is the question.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Futures Should Get Our Attention!

There is no Crystal Ball in the Market - But There are Indicators that Demand Attention
Futures @ 10 PM Sunday Night - When most are in the Green it would suggest an Up Day on Monday. The current market is dominated by commodity related issues and runs in sync with commodities. In the past when commodities were up the market was down. This has been reversed which I can only understand as an inflation concern within the economic cauldron.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Crosscurrents in the Markets

Lots of Ideas to Pick from. Some UP and Some Down.
3 Month, Daily - Nov. 19 - Rolling Pattern on a Monthly Cycle. It is amazing how the Low touchs down right on the First of each Month. What does this mean for the next 2 Weeks? Interesting. You could make a case for 105 on the SPY.
GS 20 Day, Hourly - Nov. 19 - Bearish breakout from ascending channel. Appears headed lower. MACD in decline.
GLD (Gold Trust) - Nov. 19 - Bullish Channel Trend Evident - Where does it stop?
Natural Gas - UNG - Nov. 19 - Bearish Channel in natural gas which is a bit strange heading into the winter months.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Beware the Sleeping Tiger!

Several Days of Sleep Can Built Up an Appetite. Watch for a Breakout!
20 Day, 2 Hour - Nov. 18 - Stair Steps to a Higher Market.
20 Days, 2 Hour - Nov. 18 - What can we make of this? The Price Action is above the 200 Day Moving Average (Bullish). A Bull Flag has formed out of several days of consolidation. The Intermediate Trend is Bullish. The MACD is subdued which begs for action. The lack of a sell off is in fact Bullish. Overall I would expect the market to go up from here. Of course, this could be absolutely wrong. The market is the market and there is always the possibility of news that affects the market. Our analysis is based on technical analysis and we try to leave out as best we can any bias as to the national economy, politics, and what "we think the market should do."

200 Day Moving Average Crossroads

What Direction Will the Market Take - That is the Daily Question!
2 Year, Weekly - Nov. 17 - Start with the longer term chart. Price action is bumping its head on the 200 Day Moving Average. This is considered a beachmark for a Bull Market vs. a Bear Market. Does the market break through and remain above the 200 Day MA or Retreat?
3 Month, Daily - Nov. 17 - Note the Rolling Waves in the 3 Month chart. Price Action is at the top of the channel and begs to fulfill a pattern by turning downward.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Nov. 17 - Bullish Channel dominates the Trend in the 20 Day chart. Price action is above the 200 Day MA.
2 Day, 10 min. - Nov. 17 - All politics is local and all market action is daily. Trade decisions are made by observing the longer and intermediate trends (bullish), AD lines (bullish), UVol (bullish), Double Bottoms (reversals), RSI & CCI snap back ups (reversals), and MACD (confirmations). Above action was a slow grind up. Reversals are highlighted with Rectangles.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

"Smokey Dough!

The Dollar Goes Down - The Market Goes Up
20 Day, 2 Hour - Nov. 16 - Progressive decline in the US Dollar draws defensive money into the stock market as an "inflation hedge." Commodity related issues benefit the most.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Market Mix could Explode or Fizzle!

Volatile Mixture of Market and Economic Factors Converge
20 Day Moving Average at a turn over point. Which way in uncertain.
Sideways movement could resolve to the up or down side.
20 Days, 1 Hour - 11.13.09 - Breakout could go up or down.
3 Month, Daily - Nov. 13 - Cycle would suggest a move down but this is no certainty.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Profit Opportunities in Reversal Recognition

Success is Measured in Profit. If there is no interest in Profit, you are just playing a game.
US Dollar has been under attack and has lost considerable value in the last 6 months. The decline in the Dollar has enhanced the value of commodities such as Gold, Copper, and Oil. Today the Dollar rallied and the market responded with a sell off. The two have run counter to one another.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is a Bell Weather equity and tends to run with and often lead the general market. GS has been in a bullish move as has the market. Today there was a pull back in both.
1 Year, Weekly - Strong Bull move for 6 months. (Long Term Perspective)
10 Day, 30 minute - Nov. 12 - Roll Over in the market with loss of support at lower level of trend channel. Suggests possible move lower in the days ahead.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The Bulls Have Set the World on Fire!

The Market is On Fire - Are There Any Firemen?
Goldman Sachs - 11.11.09 - Bull Move
XLF - 11.11.09 - Bull Move
SPY - 11.11.09 - Bull Move
2 Day, 10 min. - 11.11.09 - Sideways move - Longer Term charts would suggest that the move will be to the upside. If "short term" patterns are inconclusive, look to the longer term charts for direction.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Raging Bulls on a Tear

Bulls Ignore the News and Charge On in Spite of Economic Problems. The "Market is the Market" and the Economy is something else.
2 Day, 10 m. - Nov. 10 - Today was a sideways days following a strong upsurge on Monday. This is really a Bullish action allowing for consolidation and may precede another leg up.
20 Day, Hourly - Nov. 10 - Bullish Channel Trend is evident. The Market is approaching significant resistance.
GS - Goldman Sacks has proven to be a Market Bellweather. The Financials in general are in sympathy with the Market and the latter cannot really gain traction without them.
XLF - Financial ETF as with GS displays a Carbon Copy of the Market in General.