"Decisions are Made by Necessity"

When the way is not clear, you still need to make a decision.  Technical analysis requires that you use the information at hand and make the most of it.  This is an imperfect science but at times you need to take what is at hand and take a position.  That is what we have here.

6 Month, Daily - May 1 - The recent market has been demonstrated over and over as a continuing gradual upward movement with a 10% gain in the market just in the past month.  The rising trend line is running into significant technical resistance at the 88-90 level on the SPY.  The 2 month trend line has been up.  Resistance looms above.  Prior resistance and a sideways movement is history.  The market does have "symmetry" about it.

Out prediction is that that a sideways, range bound market will prevail for next couple of months which should make a perfect environment for instruments like condors.

"Sometimes the Best Defense is to Ball Up and Hunker Down"

"There is Nothing Wrong with a Passive Defense when Faced with Uncertainty."

2D, 10m. - Apr. 30th. - Early morning momentum led us into a trade to the upside which did not go well.  There was a nice move to the upside but it failed and fell back and the trade was stopped out with a small 25 cent loss.  From there the market continued its retreat.  The close was weak.
20D, 2 Hour - Apr. 30 - The Channel Trend continues UP!   The Trend is Your Friend so take care if you try and swim against it.
3M, Daily - Apr. 30 - Trend remains UP!.  Resistance sits like a lid on the market.  This has been highly touted as a Siegfried Line with iron clad defense.  That remains to be seen.  Perhaps the Hedgehog has it right.  Ball up and stay out of the way.

Track the Market

"Avoid Train Wrecks - Keep the Cars on Track"

5D, 10m. - Apr. 24 - Compare this Chart with Thursday's.  We got a dramatic break out from the Wedge formation to the upside.  The market has remained in the Channel Trend Line (Railroad Tracks).
20D, 60m. - Apr. 24 - The Channel remains Bullish with the market price at the center line.  The Moving Averages are Bullish.  A pull back may be expected given the gap and trend to the upside on Friday.
3M, Daily - Apr. 24 - The market is still in a secular long term Bear Market.  Currently there is a Bear Market Rally.  At this time there are no signs of slowing down the momentum to the upside.  The Wedge formation, however, suggests a Monday morning pull back.  The odds are that the market should remain inside the Channel.

As the market opens it pays to watch the action of the first several 5m. candles.  Let the market show its hand.  Watch the internals (UVOL/DVOL & ADs).  Pay attention to the MACD and CCI for trend indications and confirmation.

Tug O'War

"Pulling in Both Directions - Something Has Got to Give!"

20 D, 60m. - Apr. 22 -  This chart best demonstrates the Battle Ground for today (Apr. 23rd.)

The intermediate trend has been up as seen in the Channel above.  A minor trend of the last nine sessions has been sideways to down.  A Pennant shaped wedge has formed aimed at 85 on the SPY.  Breaking out above of below this wedge may be a telling sign of where we go from here.  The MACD is on the zero line.  The 8/21 MA is in the Devil's Den (undecided).  There is no clear bias that can be easily seen.  The market will in the end tell us what it wants to do.  We must be patient as we watch for market direction to materialize.  The Zone of Contention is between 84 & 86.  It could go either way.

"The Market is Trying Hard to Gain Traction"

2D, 5m. - Mar. 13 - Friday was a consolidation day (Gold Spot) required to absorb a solid week of market gain.  All price action remains above the 10D MA and the 4 Day Bull Potato is preserved going into the weekend.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 13 - Channel outlines the bullish move of the past week with two similar days of pause and consolidation.  The Bull Potato is well preserved with all action above the 10D MA.
20D, 60m. - Mar. 13 - Major Trend Reversal is seen with the Tangential Channels showing a new move to the upside.  The projection of the channel can function as a "Windsock" indicating where the market might go next week.  Of course changes in market direction may occur at any time.
3M, Daily - Mar. 13 - Longer Term Charts must always be kept in mind.  The change in direction is clear on this 3 Month chart and with each day there is greater crossover potential as the market moves in the upward direction.

"The Bull Charged Back with Explosive Force"

2D, 10m. - Mar. 12 - Very strong trending move to the upside.  There were few pull backs and little opportunity for trade entry as the price moved up.  This is the 3rd. day of a new Bull Potato and it appears to have a lot of momentum.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 12 - Tuesday and Thursday (today) showed very bullish moves to the upside in very clear cut channels.  These channels once identified can be used to help make trade decisions.
10D, 60m. - Mar. 12 - Bull Potato Day 3 and fully confirmed with all activity above all Moving Averages.  Most Potatoes last from 3 to 6 days and sometimes more.
3M, Daily - Mar. 12 - Trend reversal seen as Bull Potato roars into action.  There is still a lot of work required to reverse the larger term Bearish Trend and Secular Bear Market.

"The Bull is Up Off the Floor. What Next?"

"I'm all beat up, but I'm back in action."

2D, 5m. - Mar 4 - Fibonacci retracements of high/low of last two days are shown.  The Gold Spot highlights the 61% line which when breached frequently means a reversal of trend.  As the day played out that is what we got.  There was profit taking at the end of the session.  Tomorrow will be interesting to see if the Bulls can support this Bear Market Rally.
5D, 30m. - Mar. 4 - The market moved through the 20 & 30 day moving averages.  The Bull must be confirmed on the 60 minute time frame.  See Gold Spot.
10D, 60m. - Mar. 4 - The Bull Potato has not yet been confirmed on the 60 min. chart.

3M, Daily - Mar. 4 - The Trend is down.  The move today is just a blip in the larger scale of the market.  A lot of work needs to be done to get things turned around.