Looking for Direction in a Bull Dominated Market

"I'm not at all sure what I am looking at!"

2 Day, 15 m. - July 28 - Hind sight is 20/20. There was a nice trade set up today on the SPY. Following the CCI as a "lead" indicator combined with a "double bottom" on the candles should have triggered a Call play to the upside. A .75 gain or more could have been captured. The MACD was making a turn to the upside as well. The primary trend right now is bullish. The market being overbought mitigates against taking long trades of any size as there is definite risk to the downside. This was an intraday play and not a swing trade over several days. The number one thing to look at is the Trend. A trade against the Trend is far more risky than a trade with the Trend. The second thing to consider is the Market Condition (Overbought vs. Oversold). Then timing the entry using Price Action, Moving Averages, CCI, and Candle Sticks. Other indicators may be used but we have found that it is best to limit the number of indicators as too many will produce "paralysis by over analysis."
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 28 - Overextended and overbought market at this time. This increases the risk of a sudden reversal and lends itself best to looking for entries on a pull back. New long positions at this level are discouraged. Resistance at 96 was broken to the upside. 96 is the new level of Support. "Old Resistance becomes New Support."
3 Month, Daily - July 28 - The market run to the upside has been a huge disappointment to the Bears. Technical Analysis has classically called for a "correction." This has not only failed to develop but the market has charged forward into new territory. 96 is the new Line in the Sand serving as Support. A break down below that level would be decidedly Bearish. Today's session finished on a Bull Note but without clear signals as to direction from here.

The Bulls Stay in Charge!

"I'm on Fire. You Move Over and Get Outta' My Way"

"Follow the Money." The ZZs continue to signal a Higher Market Ahead!

20 Day, 60 min. - July 27 - Channel Trend Continues Bullish and by all standards is way overbought and due for a correction which never seems to come.
3 M, Daily - July 27 - We have had a Breakout above Resistance at 96. This has now become our New Support. The MACD and CCI remain Bullish and Overbought. Most pundits call for a pull back but the market seems to have other ideas. A high probability is that we may go side ways with the 96 serving as Support. We could get a range between 96 and 102 (speculation on my part).

Defying Gravity! Unprecedented Continuous Bull Move!

The Universe is held in order by gravitational forces. The Market by Levitation (Voodoo)?

Ten Year Treasuries flowing into Equities.

30 Year Treasuries reallocated to the equity markets. Institutional or The Fed?

10 Day, 60 min. - July 23 - Ninth Day of Bull Potato. Some kind of record for endurance. Market is oversold and overextended and overdue for a correction or at least consolidation.
3 Month, Daily - July 23 - Strong level of Resistance has now been broken. Will it now become new support for another leg up? They say that the market can stay over bought and over extended longer than anyone can remain solvent. Caution and common sense are in order.

Damn the Torpedoes ....

3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Treasury Spread may be setting up a Bullish Trend. Too early to tell. S&P Futures appear ahead of itself (overbought).
10 Day, 30 min. - July 20 - Bullish Trend and Bull Potato into its Sixth Day.
3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Collision course between the Bullish Trend line and the Resistance Line. MACD and CCI are in the Bullish mode. We need to be defensive at this point. We could theoretically get a strong Bull move or we might get a failure to push through Resistance which is close at hand.

Channel Cat Time?

Faithful to the Territory

3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs S&P Futures. Is it "Roll Over Time" or do we keep going up?
Long Term - July 16 - 2 1/2 Month Long Range Bound Market. Do we stay inside the banks or breakout. Right now we are in the High Tide area of the Range. We will see.
Cup & Handle Formation considered Bullish. This would suggest more upside movement ahead, but this is not set in concrete.

Follow the Money - Change in Direction?

Road Signs Can be Ignored but There May be Bitter Consequences.

3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures show money coming out of the mattress flowing back into Equities.

Bulls Will Not Be Denied!

And You Guys Thought We Were On the Run. Check My Action Out.

There are some little blips in the Money Markets that could be significant. Perhaps a trend change may be in the making. It is too soon to tell but bears watching. "Follow the Money."
Same Story with the Treasury ETFs. Treasury Notes are Government Mattresses that serve often serve as places to park money that could be use elsewhere as in the equity markets. When asset allocation happens market behavior can change. Simply needs watching.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 14 - Price action was mostly sideways today with some bullish moves late afternoon. The Channel Trend is still down although the last couple of days have had bullish behavior.
3 Month, Daily - July 14 - Channel Trend is down. Market closed at High Tide within the Channel. MACD & CCI are rising which suggests more bullish moves as opposed to bearish.

Bulls Roar Back!

I Am Back in the China Shop and Expect Respect!

3 M. Daily - July 13 - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures shows the stability of the T-Bill Spread as opposed to the volatile bounce in the /ES. This chart would suggest that the action today was more of a bounce rather than a reversal of trend.
5 Day, 15 m. - July 13 - Strong internals supported an impressive rally today. The price action finished at High Tide within the Channel and considerable overhead resistance exists.
30 Day, 60 min. - July 13 - Today's rally represents a bounce within the confines of a downtrending channel. There should be resistance in the "Gold Spot" area. This type of market lends itself to Spread Trades and Defined Risk Trades like Verticals and Condors. You can be wrong and still make money.
3 Month, Daily - July 13 - Down Trending Channel continues. Rally could easily be interpreted as a 'Bounce" rather than a reversal.

Asset Reallocation Underway

"There is No Gold in Goldfish - You Guys Look Somewhere Else!"

Click Images to Enlarge Size

3 Month, Daily - July 10 - Treasury Spread continues to widen showing continued flow of money into safety. The Big Boys are putting there money in the Mattress.

For Information on Treasury Spread implications go to ThinkOrSwim.com and in the Chat Rooms, look up the seminar on "Trading Economic Reports."

20 Day, 2 Hour - July 10th. - Keeping an eye on the big picture, the Channel Trend continues down although we are at Low Tide in the channel. The MACD is slightly positive as is the CCI. This suggests the possibility of a temporary bounce back up into Mid Channel.
3 Month, Daily - July 10 - There has been a Four Week decline in the market with the Trend still pointed down. The recent Head & Shoulders has broken the Neckline and this move is consistent with more downside to come. At the same time we have been in a Range Bound market that has been favorable for Iron Condors and Spreads.

Bouncing Off of Support

"I've got plans to crash the Party!"

3 M, Daily - July 9 - /ZT-/ZN & /ES - A lot of parallel activity here. The Treasury Spread on the Left confirms the S&P on the Right. Today we had a small correction in both to the upside. Tomorrow is another day. The market closed on a weak note on Thursday.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 9 - Channel Trend for the period is down. Today we had an early bounce followed by a choppy market. The market is in the lower portion of the channel which begs for more upward bounce but there are also suggestions of more weakness to come.
3 Month, Daily - July 9 - The month of June has been in a Bear Channel. Friday could see a bounce into the gold spot, but there is a real possibility of downward movement if money continues to move into the safety of Treasury Notes. The Trend of the Treasury Spread in the morning might be helpful in confirming direction.

Head & Shoulders Resolves to the Downside

As Soon as the Party begins, the Bulls try to Horn In.

(Click on Images to enlarge)

3 Month, Daily - July 8 - Treasury Spread widens reinforcing the Bears. There is a flight to safety right now with money moving out of equities. Compare the Spread on the Left with the S&P on the Right. They are mirror images of one another confirming the downward move.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 8 - Trend is down. Notice the bounce off of the S-2 Support. We had the usual late day rally into the close which has the smell of voodoo.
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 8 - Trend Channel is Down. Close today was at the lower support of the channel. This suggests the possibility of a bounce on Thursday. MACD is Red (Bearish).
3 Month, Daily - July 8 - It is always wise to look at multiple timeframes. The longer term gives us a view of the action from 30,000 feet. The Channel Trend during the entire month of June has been Bearish and remains that way. This trend is confirmed in the Treasury Spread (/ZT-/ZN). This has proven so far to be a very reliable indicator and we plan to continue to use it as long as it remains reliable.

The Bears are Back in Town

"Bully Bear" is ready to put up a fight!

3 Month, Daily - July 7 - Two & Ten Year Treasury Spread can give you a solid directional indictor. Compare the Bond Spread and the S&P Futures in the chart above. Pay close attention to the MACD in the Bond Spread. Notice the greater volatility in the S&P. This concept is fully covered in the Trader Lounge Seminars on ThinkOrSwim (dated July 1).
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 7 - The channel trend is down. Today's market action took out some important prior support. Note the negative MACD histogram.
5 D, 15 min. - July 7 - Weak close today in a down trending market. There are "fake outs" along the way but keeping one eye on the Bond Spread will steady the nerves and keep a trader on track.