Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The Bear is Back with a Vengence!  "Just be on the right side of the trade." - Shadow Trader
3M, Daily - Feb. 10 - The long term Bear Potato was threatened but fought off the attack.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 10 - The 30 minute chart gave up the Bull and converted to Bear with the Treasury announcement of a new & more extensive bank bailout without offering any specifics.  The resulted in a broad selloff secondary to all the uncertainties.  Internals were devastated.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 10 - The fall was so rapid that confirmation by the 60 minute timeframe almost made no difference and was technically slow to occur.  Obviously we do have a new Bear Potato confirmed on the Hourly.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 10 - Trending day down with no buyers in sight.  DOW was down 375 on very weak internals.  A mild rally occurred at the close.  This action would qualify as a successful "JA" play.  There was a lot of opportunity to profit assuming your being on the "right side of the trade."

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Monday, February 9, 2009

3M, Daily - Feb. 9 - The Long Range view needs to be kept in mind.  There has been a longer term Bear Potato that perhaps is being threatened with extinction.  The Channel depicts 6 up trending days with potential for a breakout to the upside.  Should this happen it would reinforce a bullish move within the longer range bear market.  What is seen above in the channel is, of course, our current Bull Potato in action.

Bull Potato Day 4 - The Bull Potato remains intact with a sideways consolidation day. Following two strong up trending days this should be bullish for Tuesday.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 9 - Channel outlines the Bull Potato.  The trend is still up.  Today (Monday) was a sideways day in which the SPY range was only 1.25 points.
5D, 30 m. - Feb. 9 - The 30 minute chart almost gave up the 10D MA but recovered later in the session.  The Hourly was never really threatened easily preserving the Bull Potato.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 9 - The narrow range of today's market is outlined by the parallel black line.  The blue central pivot runs pretty much through the center.  Today's action was choppy.  The internals were not impressive which made the "JA" play risky.

Friday, February 6, 2009

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VIX - Feb. 6 - There was significant divergence in the VIX in the latter part of the day relative to the bullish trend of the market.  The VIX (Volatility Index) is usually a contrarian index and ordinarily runs counter to the market.  With the market going up the VIX should be coming down.  In the afternoon the VIX went up at the same time as the market was going up.  This divergence does raise some questions as to the momentum follow through on Monday.



Bull Day 3 - Feb. 6 - Strong Bull Trending Day - Strong Internals in Control.
2D, 5 m. - Feb. 6 - Jack in the Box at the open made taking a position difficult.  The A/D's were 4:1 right from the start.  A/D's are more important at the open than is the UVOL/DVOL.  The opening was, in fact, a "JA" play but the "Out of the Box" made it hard to play.
5D, 30 m. - Feb. 6 - Strong trending market.  The Bull Potato has gathered strength and momentum.  Of course the weekend could lead to a change.  The close was relatively strong.
10D, 60 m. - Feb. 6 - The Bull Potato started at the Gold Spot.  There was a stumble on Wed. but it quickly recovered and has gone on to strength.
3M, Daily - Feb 6 - The Gold Spot shows a long term Bear Potato.  There is a little bullish move in the last few days.  Monday and Tuesday will be of interest to see if the momentum will hold up.

Thursday, February 5, 2009

Bull Day 2 - Feb. 5 - The Bull Roared Back.  Wednesday was an atypical day for the Potato Trade system.  Most Potatoes follow through for 2-3-4 days or more.  It looked like for once the idea did not hold up.  But, lo and behold, the hourly chart was not violated and the Bull Potato has survived, at least, to live another day.
10D, 60m. - Feb. 5 - The hourly chart shows the continuity of the Bull Potato.  There was intrusion into the Devil's Den (see sidebar), but the market recovered.  The decline yesterday was news driven and it is apparent that today the market discounted its importance.
5D, 30m. - Feb. 5 - The 30 minute chart shows the battleground between bulls and bears over control of market direction.  The bears took temporary control yesterday afternoon, but the bulls roared back today after a gap down in the early AM.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 5 - The "JA" Play of the Day offered significant opportunity.  This "JA" Play has become a daily feature on Potato Peelings.  It would appear to work far more often than not.  You can review these in the Potato Peelings' Archive (sidebar).
3M, Daily - Feb. 5 - Long term trends need to be kept in mind.  In spite of recent bullish activity, the longer term trend remain bearish.  This chart shows a "Bear Potato" within the Gold Spot.  This long term potato is contrary to the short term potato seen in the Hourly chart above.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

"Cowed at the Gate"

The Bull Potato has lost its horns over concerns about the health of financial institutions.
10D, 30m. - Feb. 4 - The market opened with increasingly stronger internals and a new Bull Potato was underway.  It was later confirmed by the crossover seen in the 60 minute chart (next).  This move was aborted by news events that impacted the concern over the financial institutions.   This led to deterioration in market strength.
Technically the Bull Potato (Cow) is still alive in that the 60 minute chart has not yet surrendered its newly won territory.  Tomorrow is another day, but there are a lot of questions.
3M, Daily - Feb. 4 - Long range direction should always be kept in mind.  There is a triangle formation as seen on this chart which leaves us watching for a breakout in either direction.  The longer term trend has been down.  Very often a breakout can be volatile.
2D, 5m. - Feb. 4 - "JA" Play of the day was near mid-day (Gold Spots).  A nice 1 to 1.50 gain could have been made.  "JA" has made a nice observation on this trade opportunity.  Like so many trades it is easier to see it after it happens and takes courage to act on convictions.

There was a shelf of support at the pivot (blue line).  It may or may not hold up tomorrow.

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Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Yesterday the Bear seemed in charge.  "Where were the Bulls?"  They were back today!  The outcome is unknown at this time.  The 30m. Chart looks like a new Bull Potato.  It has not been fully confirmed on the 60m. Chart.  "Jump the Gun" positions can be taken but at some risk.
10D, 30m.- Feb. 3 - A very decidedly bullish move occurred late in the session with more positive internals.  Note the Gold Spot.  All of this looks very positive for a continuation of upward movement but (big but) it has not yet been fully confirmed on the 60 minute chart.
20D, Hourly - Feb. 3 - Confirmation is close but not quite yet.  There was bullish activity today but there was a lack of momentum and "conviction" in the move.  I would be cautious.
6M, Hourly - Feb. 3 - Long term chart which always needs to be kept in mind.  "Bearish."
2D, 5m. - Feb. 3 - "JA" play of the day.  Ck the Gold Spots.  With courage you might have done well.