Sunday, October 11, 2009

Range Bound or Breakout to the Upside?

"Home. home on the range, where the Bulls and Bears do Play----"
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 9 - The important technical chart at this juncture is the 20 Day which shows the range in which price action has been confined of late. The market is poised to either bounce down off of resistance at the 107 level or break above and set in motion a move to even higher levels in near future. Indications continue to appear that support a pull back or correction but the bulls remain persistent in supporting the market.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 9 - Sideways action for two days that represents consolidation after a previous gap up. This pause could easily result in a vigorous breakout to the upside. At the same time a correction down would be understandable given recent strength and options expiration later this week.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 9 - Bullish Channel Trend continues to be the dominant technical picture. The RSI and CCI are both on the rise and support upward momentum.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 9 - Longer term trend is up. The Channel has room within itself for bulls and bears to frolic but the general direction remains up.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

You Never Know What's in a Golden Cup!

The Cup and Handle is an Important Set Up that should not be Ignored! It can be powerful!
2 Day, 10 min. - Oct. 8 - Significant gap up off of the Cup & Handle. The pundits said it was Alcoa earnings. Interesting how the market media looks of current new events to explain every market move. There is much more to it than that. Check out the next chart. The "Cup" had absolutely no knowledge of Alcoa.
10 Day, 60 min. - Oct. 8 - Cup and Handle formations is a favorite of O'Neill at Investors Business Daily. It can be a powerful indicator of breakouts. Not all Cup and Handles breakout but those that do may move with gusto.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 8 - The Three Month, Daily is one of my favorites. It is between long term and short term and can give trends from both perspectives. The overall trend here is up.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 8 - The Bullish Trend continues. RSI, CCI, and W%R all compliment each other on significant market reversals and bounces. Technical Analysis is important in removing emotions from trading. That goal can never reach 100%, but the less emotion and personal opinion expressed in trade decisions, the better. The ideal is to find a mechanical model that is without flaw. That is also impossible. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Bull Move Pending - Cup & Handle Begs Action!

Prominent Cup and Handle on 10 Day Chart. Upward movement expected if Price Action breaks above 106.
10 Day, 60 min. - Oct. 7 - Classic Cup & Handle with potential breakout above 106.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 7 - Bullish Channel dominate the visual. Note the RSI and CCI and Double Bottom at Support. These have been successful signals for trade action.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 7 - Today's sideways movement may have lacked excitement but the sideways movement completed the formation of a handle to the cup. This combination opens the opportunity to look for a break above 106 tomorrow. Should that happen the market may move up with gusto.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Papa Bear said, "Have You Ever Felt Unsure About Your Future?"



1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 6 - A long range view helps make short term decisions. All investments eventally turn out to be trades. Trades can be short term or long term, but all buy-sell transactions are trades. Successful trade decisions require both long and short term assessment. The philosophy of buy and hold is dead. The world is moving too fast for that to be a successful strategy.

2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 6 - Short term the market popped up from support. There are a lot of skeptics about this bullish move, but the market is the market. It is important to recognize the trend and swim with the current.

Monday, October 5, 2009

Back in the Saddle Again!

Important Support Held and the Market is Back in Bull Rally Mode.
2 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 5 - Strong Internals supported a bounce rebound off 50 Day MA. It will be important to see strong Bull support follow through.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 5 - Correction bounced off support and the action is back in the Channel to the upside. Highlighted spots indicate important points of interest.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 5 - Support at Trend line is demonstrated. Failure at this junction could have led to a move lower. Now the move appears to be UP.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 5 - Bullish Channel Trend shows support at base. Support has held. Bullish follow up is important to convince skeptics that the rally is still in force.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Trans Action Junction

Market Action is at a Critical Support Junction. Does It Break Up or Down?
5 Days, 15 min. - Oct. 2 - Weak finish at the end of a down day. Effort to break out to the upside failed. Short term correction continued into the close. The weekend may change sentiment, but there may be a continued move to the downside. As the headline indicated the results right now are up for grabs. The bulls have a way of storming back a bringing in surprising support in spite of calls for a significant market correction. If support should fail the market could drop to a much lower level.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 2 - The declining trend line reveals the correction that has started. This short term chart looks very bearish, but the longer term charts have not yet confirmed a move lower. The bulls can always come in with a bounce.
3 Month, Daily - Oct. 2 - The 3 Month chart shows a failure of support with a large candle down at the close. This is bearish but at the same time could bring about a bounce at the open. If the internals are not strong, the bounce may well fail and the market roll over to the downside. Note the RSI and CCI at very oversold levels. In the past these positions have led to significant resumption of the bull rally. The RSI, CCI, and Internals should be watched closely for directional signals. It will be an interesting week.
1 Year, Weekly - Oct. 2 - On the Weekly chart the market sits on support without the break seen in the Daily (broke support). The market action on Monday will tell us a lot as to where we go from here.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Symmetry in the Market as in the Arts

Mathematical & Artistic Principles are Demonstrated Daily in the Market
Trade Page - Oct. 1 - Trending day to the downside. UVol/DVol is the King (center frame). ADs (left frame) are the Queen. Note the orderly progression of the market as the session moved along.
5 Day, 15 min. - Oct. 1 - Important action of the day was that support was broken to the downside. This suggests that the probability is for the market to move down another leg.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Oct. 1 - Penetration of support is demonstrated on this 20 Day chart. It is important to view the market in all time frames for an overall perspective.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Anticipated Hop Happened to the Downside!

We Bulls are not always what we look like. At time we wear different clothes & colors.
Today - Trade Page - Sep. 30 - Lots of Volatility in the market today. It was difficult to be on the right side of the trade. The "Trade Page" is made up of the ADs, UVol/DVol, SPY chart, CCI, & RSI. These are used together with a few other items to make trade decisions. Your questions are welcome.
5 Day, 15 min. - Sep. 30 - Dramatic drop out of a two day sideways action. The drop was quickly followed by a rally back to near the open. RSI, CCI were both helpful in managing the positions

1 Year, Weekly - Sep. 30 - Bullish Channel Trend. Action is very close to support and suggests a possible bounce on Thursday.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Sidewinder Crawl to the East!

I don't always move in a straight line. Better watch out for my next move. It might be quick.
2 Day, 10 min - Sep. 29 - Lots of energy being stored up for a Breakout Move.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Sep. 29 - Bullish Channel Trend with bounce off of support.
3 Month, Daily - Sep. 29 - Bullish Trend Channel. RSI, CCI bounce to upside is a Bullish indication of more to come.
1 Year, Weekly - Sep. 29 - Bullish Trend Channel in force. Note the progressive decline in volume over a one year period of time. There is just less participation in the market as the economy struggles along.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Hi Steppin' Off Support!

"I still got some Snap in My Spring. Full speed ahead!"
2 Day, 10 minutes - Sep. 28 - Today the market bounced off of support. The question now is if there is enough steam to keep up the momentum to the upside.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Sep. 28 - RSI & CCI show clear signals to the upside on this chart. Channel Trend is Bullish.
3 Month, Daily - Sep. 28 - RSI & CCI show clear buy signals to the upside. Action sits right on support within the channel.
1 Year, Weekly - Sep. 28 - Long Term Bullish Trend. Price sits at support on the weekly.