Sometimes the Market Seems a See Saw!

When the Market Seems a See Saw go to the Longer Time Frame for Perspective.

JA 12 - SPY - 6 Month Daily - The Pull Back today seemed significant at close range.  A longer term view as seen in this 6 month chart reveals that it was just a blip in a longer term Bull Move.  Put that in your Pipe and Smoke it.

Bull Start on New Year - Lead the Target - Buy on Pull Backs!

Take Aim at Your Expectations - Use the Indicators Wisely

Jan. 11, '10 - SPY - 5 Day, 15 min. - Bull Start to New Year - Trend is Up - Take Positions on Pull Backs to the Lower Regression Line.

Think or Swim SPY Chart - Buy below the Regression Line and Watch the CCI and RSI for Pull Backs to the Bottom Lines and Expect Bounces.

MNX - Mini Nasdaq - Bullish Trend but More Flat & Sideways in Last 5 Days - Watch for Pull Backs and Take Aim at Expectations within the Regression Channel.

"Value of the Dollar Sets Market Tone & Price Action"

Commodity Values are Directly Related to the US $.  Ripple Effects Seen in all Markets.

Falling Dollar Spurs Prices of Commodities (Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, etc.)

Higher Commodity Prices, Spur Market Indexes.  This is the SPY (S&P 500).  The same trends are reflected in all the major indexes.  In the above charts the horizontal lines represent the Pivots with upper and lower being R2 and S2.  For the most part, the price action has been between the Pivot and R2.  These ranges are important in making trade and investment decisions.  The February Pivots, for instance, are computer generated from current and past price action.  These data points create Probability Ranges into which more accurate estimate of direction is ascertained.  As in flying it is important to stay in touch with the Instrument Panel.

Cross Currents Create Uncertainty

When the Path is Unclear, Stop & Study the Situation

Our Featured Condor was Closed Out Today with a $800.00+ Profit.  It had reached maturity with expiration next week.  The Market behavior became erratic and volatile and we took our profit.  One rule to follow in trading options is, "Don't let winners turn into losers."

One Element of Our Condor was maintained as shown above.  This particular trade is dead center and has some additional profit potential.

With Condor setup we rely on Person Pivots and the Recession Channel to establish the Goal.  An Iron Condor is set up to reflect our expectations of direction and degree using these indicators.  The Recession Channel is actually a Bell Curve set to a linear scale.  There is a 68% Probability that the price will finish within the limits of the channel.

With Condors, "Keep the Ball in Play"

Iron Condors are an Option Spread that Buys Time for Profit - Just Mind the Store

Paper Profit of $886.00 with a $20 loss due to decreased Volatility - Still on Target for Bigger Gains - Theta is now 45.00 (Is that Greek?  Yes!) - You have to study Greek to Trade Options.

Monthly Pivots show the Condor on track to hit 115.00 by Expiration.

VIX (Volatility Index) is at a 6 Month Low - This is Bullish!

Something to Quack About!

Well, I'm Not a Condor but I Can Still Do My Thing!

Status Up $884.00!  Dead Center on Trade.  Goal is $1000.00 by Friday.

(Example only: "Not a Recommendation")

Pivot Points Can Help Plot the Course.

MNX Pivots over a 6 Month Period clearly show the reliability of these indicators.  The middle line is the Pivot.  The upper line is R2 and the lower is S2.  Price Action for the most part has been consistently between the Pivot and R2 in this Bull Rally starting last March.  "Keep the Ball in Play."

Smoking Condor

Our Bird is On Fire ~ Smokin' Up a Storm!

Paper Profit is Up to $835.00 -  Goal is $1100.00

Weekly Pivots are being Challenged at the Top Side.  Condor is Safe Between 107 & 117.  SPY is 113.

Monthly Pivots Show that Trade is Right on Track with Goal of 115.  Care is Required as the Market Moves into Higher Ground.

Patience Pays of in the Market

Condors Take Time to Mature ~ They Also Require Close Attention

One Year Monthly Pivots ~ Long Range View of Where We Have Been ~  Pivots Can Help Show the Way.  Bull Market Since Last March.  Will it Continue in 2010?

Weekly Pivots Suggest a Sideways to Down Week Ahead.  The Center Line is the Central Pivot Point.  Above is Bullish and Below is Bearish.  As we start the New Year this first week will be important in setting the tone for the year to come.

Our Condor Trade Continues to Work.  The Tack on Extras are Not Helpful at this Point.  The Condor Trade itself is right on target.

Take a Position and Defend It!

Condors are Like Herding Goats

The Pivots lay out the Playing Field.  Take a Position with a Condor (about 5 weeks before expiration) and Defend It.

Gaining Ground Steadily

Vertical and Calendar added on for Insurance against the Up Side.

On Going Condor Report

A Condor is Similar to an Umbrella.  Not perfect, but it does Spread the Risk of Drowning.  It can also Save your Setup and Opportunity for Another Day (Delta neutral and Theta positive).  We can go into Greeks another day.

Pivots Points are as Critical to a Trader as Sidelines are to Vince Lombardi.

Our Condor Trade is Now Up by $610.00.  If everything goes as Hoped for we may Render a Profit of $1000.00 by JA 11th.

Sometimes I wonder if anyone really reads this stuff.  It is educational for me and I like to do it.  If anyone out there no longer wants to get these Blog reports, please let me know.  I am only permitted to send out 10 reports, so if you have no significant interest, someone else may want your place.

PB