Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Breakouts are Exciting and can be Opportunities

Breakouts are a Classic Opportunity to Make Money!
Acme Packet - Parabolic Pattern with a Pause for Refreshment.  Situation begs for Resolution.
A Lower High suggests a Roll Over.  Resistance Line drawn across the Highs and a Support Line drawn under the Lows.  These are out Lines in the Sand.  A Break above is Bullish and a Break below is Bearish.  Let's keep it simple.  The facts of the market are staring us in the face.


Bounce off of Support is interesting but not Decisive.  Up or Down?  Who knows?
Price back up to Resistance.  Breakout above Resistance Bullish and would expect another Leg Up in the Price Action.
Classic Breakout above Resistance with continued move to the Upside.  Price Action is in the Clear and there is no overhead Resistance.

This is a Study in taking advantage of Technical Analysis to help making Trade Decisions.  Direction is so important and the Breakout is Decisive in Revealing the Market's intention.



Dollar Down > Market Up!

US Dollar Rolling over after Short Rally

Rally in the Dollar Fizzles at least for the moment.  There is an inverse relationship of the Dollar to the Stock Market.  When the Dollar goes down, the market goes up and vice versa.  (Click on the Charts for Larger View)

SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 3.16.10 - Trend continues up.  Daily Pivots continue to Rise with the Tide.  Hourly Candles are mostly Green as is the CCI.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Undecided Market



SPY is back at Resistance.  The "Tug o' War" continues.  There is a lot of energy building on both sides.  The Drama is About to Begin!


Sunday, March 14, 2010

The Sleeping Tiger Waits in the Wing!

The Sleeping Tiger may be the Play!  Watch the Price Action and the MACD!

SPY 2 Day Chart - Very narrow range on Friday.  This is winding up the Spring short term.  We could have same explosive up or down action on Monday.  A sideways action such as this is a temporary "truce" between bulls and bears.  It usually resolves with one side advancing and the other retreating.

Monday, March 8, 2010

The Memphis "Pippin" Exemplifies Volatility

We can go into a lot of definitions and technical jargon to explain "volatility."  The fact is that anyone who has traded in the market has either been the beneficiary or victim of "volatility."  Trading and taking positions in periods of high volatility can extract a cost that oftentimes is unexpected.  When prices are on the move, the market makers increase the spread between the bid and ask price.  On the other hand when there are periods of low volatility these spreads may only be a penny (vs. 5-10 cents).   Therefore, periods of low volatility can be opportunities to take positions that will be "goosed" by the increased volatility.  The Bollinger Bands demonstrate volatility by showing the "second" level of standard deviation from the norm.  The Bollinger Bands capture 95% if the price action, and should the price go beyond that, it is more than likely that a new direction has been established.  

Click on the Following Charts to Enlarge the View
SPY 3.8.10 - One Day, 15 min. - There was an expansion of volatility yesterday as the market moved up.  Today was a "Sideways" day, and you can see that the Bollinger Bands contracted.  In fact, even though I had a position from yesterday which went up, the value went down due to volatility.  The present contraction of the Bollinger Bands is actually an opportunity the benefit from an eventual expansion of volatility.  All contractions are followed by expansion and all expansions are followed by contractions.  It is the job and art of the trader to anticipate these moments of changes in volatility as well as market direction.

Click on Chart to Enlarge
SPY 5 Day, 15 min. - This 5 Day chart demonstrates the gap up on Friday and the Bollinger Band expansion.  During this period of time the "spreads" between bid and ask on any issue broadened.  It is often felt that a contraction of volatility and subsequent narrow Bollinger Bands is "boring."  To the contrary, this may be a great opportunity to take a position (up or down) and when it occurs (if you are right on direction), you will benefit by expansion of volatility.

There is a Strategy called "Sleeping Tiger" explained by Toni Turner that shows how to take advantage of this situation.  It is one of her favorite trades.  You can find that is the Sidebar on the Blog.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Volatility Opportunities

The Market and the Kangaroo have Similar Patterns of Volatility

Bollinger Bands have periods of Expansion and Contraction.  One will follow the other.  There is no alternative.  Traders can take advantage of this probability.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Play Action - Take a Position and Make the Play!

All plays do not work, but no play never works!

200 Day MA Up!  20 Day MA Up! 2 Days of Consolidation.  The Play should be Up!  It may not work, but the Edge is to the Upside.

Crashing the Party?

There Comes a Time and I'm Ready to Fight!

Head and Shoulders suggests possible move to the downside.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Cross Currents Create Uncertainty!

What started as a Bullish Day ended with a Whimper.  What's Next?

Market Behavior and Direction Currently Attached to the US Dollar

S&P Futures (/ES) in Bullish Trend - Are we back a Support?  Will it Hold?

SPY 6 Month, Daily shows pullback with Bounce back to Upside.  Today was Bullish but ended with a Whimper.  Is this just a lower high or a pause on the way up?  The Market is the final arbiter.  We will see!

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Do the Bulls have it in 'em?

Lot's of Bluster but is there Substance?


Dollar Rally in Retreat.  This has been Bullish for the Market in the Past.