Spooked Again by the Dollar Rally!

Just when I thought I had it made!

Breakout in the DX (Dollar) puts pressure on the Market.  (Click on Image to Enlarge)

SPY 4.7.10 - Weekly Pivots - Pulling Back from New Highs as the Dollar Rallies.  Trend is still UP!

SPY 4,7,10 - 6 Month, Daily - Solid Trend to Upside, but challenged by the Rally in the DX.  Pivots or Monthly and May "Person Pivots" are shaping up as "Sideways."

You Bears Don't Have a Place at the Table!

Look Who's in Charge Here!

Even a Pop in the /DX (Dollar) did not help the Bears (Click on Image to Enlarge)

SPY 6 Month Daily - 4.7.10 - Trend continues to the Upside.

May I Butt In?

Looks to Me Like it's My Time to Play!

US Dollar (DX) may break out of channel to the upside which would be an indication of a pending pull back in the market. (Click on Image to Enlarge)

SPY 20 Day, 1 Hour - 4.5.10 - There was a good pop in the SPY to the center of the channel.  We could get a temporary pull back or sideways consolidation in Tuesday's market.  The intermediate trend remains bullish.

The Dollar as a Market Indicator

Dollar Down > Market Up  -  Dollar Up > Market Down

Market Trending to Upside vs. Dollar Trending Down - See Below - (Click Image to Enlarge)

Dollar Trending Down as the Market Trends to Upside -  This is often a significant Indicator of Market Direction and should be Included in the Trader's Scan.

Tug o' War

Lots of Stress in the Market but no Breakout of Range "So Far"

SPY 3/31/10 - Regression Channel is Bullish and it would appear we are at a "Bounce Point" back to the Upside.  The Long Weekend for Good Friday could play a part in Price Action.

"Market Chemistry @ Work"

Mixture of Financial Factors make Market Price Action a Day to Day Proposition.

US Dollar Pulls Back from Short Term Rally.  There is no Defined Trend in the Dixie which helps to confound expectations for what is next.

When there is Doubt as to Direction, it pays to look at he Longer Term Charts.  The SPY (S&P 500) remains in an Up Trending Channel.  When there are short term doubts as to direction, the 6 Month Daily can provide a more solid foundation as to what to expect.  In this case it is Bullish.

Mathematical Odds Favor the Upside

The "Bell Curve" can work in the Market as Well as Elsewhere when it comes to the Laws of Probability.  (Click on the Graphics to Enlarge View)

SPY 6 Month, Daily - 3.26.10 - The limits of the "Regression Channel" seen above represents "One Standard Deviation" from the price range since the middle of Feb.  The Channel is Trending Up.  There is a 68.2% chance that the market will trade between the upper and lower limits of this channel.  This is not a guarantee, but those are the mathematical odds at the moment.  In general longer range charts are more reliable as to Trend as compared to shorter range charts and patterns.  The Solid Lines are Pivot Points with the upper and lower bars being Resistance and Support for the Week.  This week the Pivots suggest a Higher Market is in store using mathematical equations within a Technical Analysis framework.

Bernanke "Shorts" the Market with Prophecy of Protracted Problems

The Chairman Spoke and the Market Tanked

We should get a Bounce on Friday.

True to Form

Ya Gotta Watch the "Sleeping Tiger."

APKT just took a little nap and then broke again to the upside at Support.

Back to the Acme Packet Study

Let's Look at the Fundamentals Here!

Technical Analysis revolves around Support and Resistance.  There are other factors but those are essential in technical analysis.  Acme Packet (APKT) just happens to be our study at hand.  The stock broke out above Resistance and appeared to be heading upward.  It his a Resistance level and has backed off.  The Old Resistance is considered the New Support.  As the price recedes toward the New Support/Old Resistance we are looking at a Bounce back to the upside.  This could be a Buy Opportunity if the general market internals are Bullish.  The Price Pattern suggests profit taking by those who bought at a lower level.  Institutional holders of the stock could be selling into the strong upswing in the price action.  Compared to recent Parabolic advances in the stock, the action at the moment is Digestive and Consolidating.  A new breakout to the upside is very likely once this "Pause that Refreshes" is over.