Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Waiting on the Breakout - "Sleeping Tiger"

 Just Say When!
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.6.11 - Rejection from Devil's Den (Bullish in favor of Move Up)
 SPY  6 Month, Daily - 7.6.11 - Sideways Consolidation inside Shade Rectangle.  Breakout could go either way.  Close at Upper Extent of Range is Bullish.
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.6.11 - "Sleeping Tiger Play" in the Wings.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Potato Trading is Pretty Simple - Just Ups and Downs!

 Could be Roll Over Time?
2 Year, Weekly - 7.5.11 - Short Term Range Bound - Dipping into the Devil's Den
 SPY 6 Months, Daily - 7.5.11 - Trend Line Break but will it Keep it UP?
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 7.5.11 - Very Narrow Range today.  After  5 Days of UP. a Down move could be anticipated.  Rally could run out of steam.

Monday, July 4, 2011

US Dollar Value vs. The Equty Market

 Dollar Up > Market Down - Dollar Down > Market Up
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 7.1.11 - A Strong Weekly Rebound with Break in Downtrend Line.  The Big Question now is Momentum (+ or -)
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 7.1.11 - Strong Upward Move with Break in Trend Line.  Price Action approaching Resistance.  Baring Negative News and Events the Momentum could Carry the Market to new Intermediate Highs.  A Stall at Resistance would result in a Failed Breakout and the Market would ball back into Range.
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 7.1.11 - Bull Potato until Proven Otherwise.  Price Action very strong on Top of 20 Day Moving Average without any Signs of Sideways Consolidation as yet.  The Three Day market pause for the 4th. of July adds a Wrinkle to the Momentum Question.  Technical Outlook would favor a Bullish Continuation with eventual Pause and Sideways Consolidation followed, perhaps, by a Pull Back in the next few days.  As pointed out above, at lot depends on the Dollar.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Time for Thinking - Perhaps a Pause?

 A Man Needs a Rest Between Hops
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 6.30.11 - Bumping Resistance & Trend Line
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 6.30.11 - Potential for Breakout but Resistance and Trend Line Could Prove Significant - A Pause for Consolidation would not be Surprising
SPY 10 Day, Hourly - 6.30.11 - One Week of Fire might call for a Pause - Bull Potato in Play!  Staying on Top of 20 Day Moving Average even with a Pause is Important for Continuation.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Finally a Little Breakout Action!

 "I Dun Bin a Tadpole Too Long.  Let's Get Goin'."
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 6.29.11 - The Two Year Weekly gives us a Long Term View of the Trend.  In this case it is Up.  The Last seven week, however, have been down.  This week the market has shown bottoming action and there appears to be a reversal of sentiment to the upside.
 SPY 6 Month, Daily - 6.29.11 - The Trend for the last two months has been Down.  A Bounce or Rally off of Support offers a Challenge to Resistance at the 50 Day MA (Green Line).  A Break above the 50 could carry the market higher.
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 6.29.11 - Breakout over Resistance should clear the way for a higher market.  The Green Spot is a short term Target.  The 20 Day MA has crossed the 50 Day MA which creates a Bull Potato.  The Idea is to Stay on Top of the Yellow Line and Ride the Horse a Little Higher.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Back at the Top of the Range - What Next?

 Will the Fence be Broken to the Upside?
"This is an Action Related Blog designed for my personal use and reflection on the market and how I can best navigate all the variables.  Questions and reactions are welcome, but these are ideas should never be construed as recommendations to others for market participation."
 SPY 2 Year Weekly - 6.28.11 - The Bounce could be a Bottom?
 SPY 3 Month, Daily - 6.28.11 - Pulling on the Bootstraps.  Looking for Momentum
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 6.28.11 - Range Bound Market at the Potential Breakout Point - Resistance could set the market back into the Range.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Range Bound Breakout versus Trend Extension Down?

 Goes from Bad to Worse for Me!
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 6.24.11 - Is Eight Weeks of Down Overdone or Just the Beginning?
 SPY 3 Month, Daily - 6.24.11 - Range Bound in Short Term - Begging for a Breakout (Watch for a Fake Out before the Breakout).
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 6.14.11 - Weekly Trend in First Chart is Interesting.  It Point Down.  Short Term we are Range Bound.  Do we get a Breakout?  A Significant Breakout could Stimulate Acceleration.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Back in the Box with Fed Pessimism

 Gloomy Forecast Announcement on Economy Sinks Rally
(Click on Images to Enlarge)
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 SPY 2 Year Weekly - 6.22.11 - Seven Week Decline Seeking Support in the Box
 SPY 3 Month, Daily - 6.22.11 - Back into Consolidation
SPY 20 Day, Hourly - 6.22.11 - Fed Kills Rally.  General Market Returns to Sideways Consolidation Seeking Support in the "Box."

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Large Move Deserves Time to Consolidate


 Just in Case!
 SPY 20 Day, Weekly - 6.21.11 - Weekly "Not out of the woods."
 SPY 3 Month, Daily - 6.21.11 - Gap Up may need time to Digest.
SPY 20 Day, 60 min. - 6.21.11 - Green Spot represents 2-3 Day Goal.  The Market could get some Sideways Consolidation Action first.

Box Breakout Looming

 Popping Up with Optimism!
 SPY 2 Year, Weekly - 6.20.11 - Dead Center in the Neutral Zone.  Note Support Line and Bottoming Action.
 3 Month, Daily - 6.20.11 - Sideways Bottoming Action (Consolidation) - Preparing for a Spring (Breakout) to the Upside.
10 Day, Hourly - 6.20.11 - Straining at the Bit to Breakout.  Volume has been Weak which is a Negative for Momentum and Staying Power.