Tracks & Trends Show the Way!

Tracks are tracks.  They do lead somewhere and it may be where you want to go.

5 Day, 15 min. - May 12 - The Intermediate Bullish Trend has been at least temporarily broken by a short term bearish move in the last two days.  The Internals and trend to the downside offered excellent opportunity for intraday trades.  On going Iron Condor trades have moved favorably in our Delta Neutral Portfolio.  One such trade has been featured in Condor Country near the lower end of the Blog.
20 Day, 2 hour - May 12 - Intermediate Trend continues Bullish.  There has been a corrective pull back in the last two days.  Momentum is centered at this time.  Support can be expected in the lower elements of the channel range.
3 Month, Daily - May 12 - The Bullish Move of the last 6 weeks has been impressive.  Of course, about the time that we think the road ahead is paved without curves, curves will develop.  It is hard to expect this Kansas Straight Highway to maintain this consistency.

Some Serious Study is Needed Here!

We seem to be at a crossroads.  Let's take a close look before jumping in too soon!

2D, 5 minute - May 11 - Today we had a break in the Bullish Trend.  There was a gap down followed by a mostly sideways day but with weak internals.  There was no aggressive selling and at the same time there was no strong Bullish effort to sustain the recent rally.  The day ended with a weak close.  The sideways action with lack of momentum kept us on the sidelines.  Our Time Decay Iron Condors performed well in this environment.
10D, 30 minute - May 11 - The current intermediate trend is easily demonstrated.  We did get a break below the ascending triangle that was suggested yesterday.  Today there was a gap down followed by a day of weak internals and no real momentum to recapture the Bull move.  While the market did close with a whimper there was no aggressive selling.
3M, Daily - May 11 - The Intermediate Trend remains up, but there is a suggestion of weakness with the break of the ascending triangle.  This would indicate that we may have some additional pull back.  There are no guarantees in the market.  "Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball." - Carl Swenlin, <>

Whiskers have a Purpose!

Playing a little Cat & Mouse can be fun.  Obviously an experiment!

2D, 5m. - May 8 - On most days the market either goes up or it goes down.  It is very common for the angle of trend is 20-30°.  We used the SPY futures to pick the open and prior to the open placed some 30° channels both up and down simulating a fork in the road.  The idea was to see which road the market took.  Well initially it took the high road and then retreated to the low road and eventually settled on a middle road.  The middle road, however, was a 30° up channel that was parallel to the original "whiskers" that we set up in the beginning.  The main point here is not how it worked but that we did have a "plan" and followed it with success.  The decision to "not trade" is just a important as the one "to trade" as both affect the bottom line.

On a more serious side we decided against a trade to the upside because the NASDAQ had such poor internals and was not participating early on with the S&P or NYSE.  There was a nice move to the upside in late morning that offered a good opportunity for gain.  The CCI showed a "snap back up", the MACD was rising, and there was a MA crossover to support a trade to the long side.
10 D, 3o min. - May 8 - The Channel remains Bullish.  There has been a perpetual Bull Potato since March 19th.  The MACD is Bullish.  The Price Action is at the center line on this 10 Day Chart.
3 Month, Daily - May 8 - The Channel Trend remains Bullish.  There is an ascending triangle that has formed in the past week which suggests the possibility of a short term pull back.  It is most likely that the market will remain in the channel even with a pull back which would indicate that the Rally has not run out of steam as yet.  The much Advertized Resistance has offered little to retard the advance of the market in the past week.

Signals and Patterns are Important to Recognize!

A Repetitious Pattern that is observed is the Symmetrical "Down>Horizontal>Down" or the "Up>Horizontal>Up".  These patterns are similar to the old semaphore signals that date back into Naval History.  Why they happen I do not know, but I do know that they happen.
2 Day, 5 min. - May 7 - This was a very interesting trading day.  The Gap up was followed by a slide in internals and price action to a horizontal plateau.  This was followed by a "quite" MACD and a symmetrical break to the downside with a crossover of the 8/21 MA.  That was the "short signal".  High "hockey stick" also confirmed this trigger.  Note how the afternoon session was a symmetrical repetition of the morning session.  The Sneak Attack at the close is another phenomenon that defies reason to explain except to say it does happen and we need to be prepared to deal with it.
5D, 15m. - May 7 - Breakdown of Short Term Trend line led to move to the downside.
3M, Daily - May 7 - In spite of pull back in the market today the Channel Trend is still Bullish and should be respected.  Watching the first 15-30 minutes of the market can help give us an indication of market direction.  Let the Market Show Its Hand.

This is Just Hard to Bear!

"I Need to Sit Back and Think this Over.  Man, I am Out O'Breath!"

5D, 15m. - May 6 - Hind sight would suggest some good trades today.  In fact, taking a position was difficult and could easily prove a loser.  Volatility was significant.  The internals were strong at the open, then became weak only to strengthen later in the session.  The Trend remains consistently bullish and its directional bias cannot be ignored.  With the rally so mature and extended it is difficult to go long and at the same time it is difficult to go short when the Trend is up.
3M, Daily - May 6 - The Bullish Channel remains consistently UP!  There is even a shorter term bullish move within the Channel.  The MACD is rising on the Daily which is also Bullish.  Our attention today was directed at the Channel Trend, the Internals, the Frequent Intraday Reversals, the Inconsistencies, the MACD and the CCI.  The CCI on one occasion gave a nice "hockey stick high" on the 2 Day, 10 minute for a sell signal on a roll over.  Trades were entirely possible given the ranges seen, but timing had to be perfecto.

Come on Bulls, Follow Me!

Bull Rally Show No Signs of Slowdown

5D, 15m - May 5 - Inside day offered little trade opportunity.  Perhaps just a pause for another upward movement on Wednesday.
3M, Daily - May 5 - Channel remains Bullish.  The Trend is Our Friend!  MACD bullish.

Symmetry in the Market as in the Arts

"There is Symmetry, Grace, and Proportion in the Market as is in the Arts."

2D, 10m. - May 4 - Aside from the results of the market, it is important to observe the form of the market as it evolved.  There is a recurrent symmetry that frequently recurs that is "circadian" in its predictability.  Be on the lookout for this.  It happens often and can give suggestions for positive trading opportunities.
2D, 10m. - May 4 - A good trade was made today with Calls at 8:45 and a sell at 9:15 for a nice profit based on very positive internals and momentum in the market.  A specific target was set at one point above the buy point.  This filled and we had a 20% profit within 30 minutes.  The rest of the session was a slow grind up with much uncertainty and a sneak attack in the last 20 minutes.  It was with the last minute activity that the symmetry of the session was spelled out.
3M, Daily - Apr. 4 - The Bullish Trend Channel continues to move up in spite of anticipated resistance.  The "Maginot Line" that has been highly advertized for several weeks has proved to be more Swiss Cheeze and Warm Butter than solid substance.

"Decisions are Made by Necessity"

When the way is not clear, you still need to make a decision.  Technical analysis requires that you use the information at hand and make the most of it.  This is an imperfect science but at times you need to take what is at hand and take a position.  That is what we have here.

6 Month, Daily - May 1 - The recent market has been demonstrated over and over as a continuing gradual upward movement with a 10% gain in the market just in the past month.  The rising trend line is running into significant technical resistance at the 88-90 level on the SPY.  The 2 month trend line has been up.  Resistance looms above.  Prior resistance and a sideways movement is history.  The market does have "symmetry" about it.

Out prediction is that that a sideways, range bound market will prevail for next couple of months which should make a perfect environment for instruments like condors.

Overhead Resistance Important to Market;s Behavior

"Resistance Looms Overhead - Beware the Dog"

3 Month, Daily - May 1 - The Channel remains Bullish but the market is confronted by significant overhead resistance.  The strength or weakness of this resistance will be very important as to market behavior in the next couple of weeks.
20D, 2 Hr. - May 1 - The Wedge formation combined with a neutral MACD could result in an explosive breakout in either direction.  The market on Friday was very volatile with reversals and whip lash activity.

"Sometimes the Best Defense is to Ball Up and Hunker Down"

"There is Nothing Wrong with a Passive Defense when Faced with Uncertainty."

2D, 10m. - Apr. 30th. - Early morning momentum led us into a trade to the upside which did not go well.  There was a nice move to the upside but it failed and fell back and the trade was stopped out with a small 25 cent loss.  From there the market continued its retreat.  The close was weak.
20D, 2 Hour - Apr. 30 - The Channel Trend continues UP!   The Trend is Your Friend so take care if you try and swim against it.
3M, Daily - Apr. 30 - Trend remains UP!.  Resistance sits like a lid on the market.  This has been highly touted as a Siegfried Line with iron clad defense.  That remains to be seen.  Perhaps the Hedgehog has it right.  Ball up and stay out of the way.