"Surprises are Fun, but This Market is Ridiculous!"

Market Behavior Confounds Sound Technical Analysis - Some of the Time.

2 Day, 5 m. SPY - July 21 - Using a combination of CCI "Hockey Stick", Weak Internals, and a Roll Over in the Treasury Spread, we identified an Intraday Swing High where we bought Puts. The Internals at that time were strongly negative so we put in an automatic sell order to close with a 20% Gain. This goal coincided with S-1 (Support). The Trade triggered and we were out with our 20% Gain. See Charts Below.
3 Month. Daily - Treasury Spread compared to the S&P Futures are shown above. Note the "Roll Over" in the Chart to the Left. This move was Bearish for the Market in general. The S&P appears overbought and overextended. Note the Oval markers in the CCI. The thought at the time was that the S&P would fall into line with the Spread which it did.
7/21/09 Internals show A/Ds on Left in a downward spiral and the UVOL/DVOL also falling. This combination of price action, internal action, and supporting indicators like the CCI helped bring off this successful trade.
3 Month, Daily - July 21 - The Close of the market today still leaves us in a technical dilemma with multiple choices on what comes next. The situation calls for patience and caution with very careful selection of entry points and size of commitment.

Damn the Torpedoes ....

3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Treasury Spread may be setting up a Bullish Trend. Too early to tell. S&P Futures appear ahead of itself (overbought).
10 Day, 30 min. - July 20 - Bullish Trend and Bull Potato into its Sixth Day.
3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Collision course between the Bullish Trend line and the Resistance Line. MACD and CCI are in the Bullish mode. We need to be defensive at this point. We could theoretically get a strong Bull move or we might get a failure to push through Resistance which is close at hand.

Lots to Choose From! Ideas Abound!

"It Really is a Crap Shoot."

3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures - "Follow the Money" - The Trend in the Money Flow is Bullish.
20 Day, 60 min. - July 17 - "Cup & Handle / Breakout" invokes Bullish indication for next move.
3 Month, Daily - July 17 - Two Trends to contend with! 2 1/2 month long range bound market with more recent Bullish Trend in place. Next step is on collision with Resistance just above. Note the Gold Spots on MACD and CCI. Both are Bullish but also poised for a possible roll over.

Channel Cat Time?

Faithful to the Territory

3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs S&P Futures. Is it "Roll Over Time" or do we keep going up?
Long Term - July 16 - 2 1/2 Month Long Range Bound Market. Do we stay inside the banks or breakout. Right now we are in the High Tide area of the Range. We will see.
Cup & Handle Formation considered Bullish. This would suggest more upside movement ahead, but this is not set in concrete.

Follow the Money - Change in Direction?

Road Signs Can be Ignored but There May be Bitter Consequences.

3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures show money coming out of the mattress flowing back into Equities.

Taking the day off!

What more can I say!

Bulls Will Not Be Denied!

And You Guys Thought We Were On the Run. Check My Action Out.

There are some little blips in the Money Markets that could be significant. Perhaps a trend change may be in the making. It is too soon to tell but bears watching. "Follow the Money."
Same Story with the Treasury ETFs. Treasury Notes are Government Mattresses that serve often serve as places to park money that could be use elsewhere as in the equity markets. When asset allocation happens market behavior can change. Simply needs watching.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 14 - Price action was mostly sideways today with some bullish moves late afternoon. The Channel Trend is still down although the last couple of days have had bullish behavior.
3 Month, Daily - July 14 - Channel Trend is down. Market closed at High Tide within the Channel. MACD & CCI are rising which suggests more bullish moves as opposed to bearish.

Bulls Roar Back!

I Am Back in the China Shop and Expect Respect!

3 M. Daily - July 13 - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures shows the stability of the T-Bill Spread as opposed to the volatile bounce in the /ES. This chart would suggest that the action today was more of a bounce rather than a reversal of trend.
5 Day, 15 m. - July 13 - Strong internals supported an impressive rally today. The price action finished at High Tide within the Channel and considerable overhead resistance exists.
30 Day, 60 min. - July 13 - Today's rally represents a bounce within the confines of a downtrending channel. There should be resistance in the "Gold Spot" area. This type of market lends itself to Spread Trades and Defined Risk Trades like Verticals and Condors. You can be wrong and still make money.
3 Month, Daily - July 13 - Down Trending Channel continues. Rally could easily be interpreted as a 'Bounce" rather than a reversal.

Asset Reallocation Underway

"There is No Gold in Goldfish - You Guys Look Somewhere Else!"

Click Images to Enlarge Size

3 Month, Daily - July 10 - Treasury Spread continues to widen showing continued flow of money into safety. The Big Boys are putting there money in the Mattress.

For Information on Treasury Spread implications go to ThinkOrSwim.com and in the Chat Rooms, look up the seminar on "Trading Economic Reports."

20 Day, 2 Hour - July 10th. - Keeping an eye on the big picture, the Channel Trend continues down although we are at Low Tide in the channel. The MACD is slightly positive as is the CCI. This suggests the possibility of a temporary bounce back up into Mid Channel.
3 Month, Daily - July 10 - There has been a Four Week decline in the market with the Trend still pointed down. The recent Head & Shoulders has broken the Neckline and this move is consistent with more downside to come. At the same time we have been in a Range Bound market that has been favorable for Iron Condors and Spreads.

Bouncing Off of Support

"I've got plans to crash the Party!"

3 M, Daily - July 9 - /ZT-/ZN & /ES - A lot of parallel activity here. The Treasury Spread on the Left confirms the S&P on the Right. Today we had a small correction in both to the upside. Tomorrow is another day. The market closed on a weak note on Thursday.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 9 - Channel Trend for the period is down. Today we had an early bounce followed by a choppy market. The market is in the lower portion of the channel which begs for more upward bounce but there are also suggestions of more weakness to come.
3 Month, Daily - July 9 - The month of June has been in a Bear Channel. Friday could see a bounce into the gold spot, but there is a real possibility of downward movement if money continues to move into the safety of Treasury Notes. The Trend of the Treasury Spread in the morning might be helpful in confirming direction.