Saturday, July 25, 2009

Take a Rocket to the Moon?

The Market has gotten a bit Fanciful - Seems we are on Rocket Ride into Space!
Interesting Chart Comparing the Euro/Dollar relationship to the US Stock Market Index. Very similar pattern. Almost carbon copies of one another. "Follow the Money."
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 24 - Longer Term is the only way to maintain a perspective on the market. Trends are important to the Trader and Investor alike. This is the Tenth day of a Bull Potato and there has been little sign of a slowdown which seems eminent on a daily basis.
3 Month, Daily - Bull Trend has broken significant Resistance. It would appear we are headed into higher territory. At the same time the market is very overbought and long overdue for a correction to the downside. The Bulls have yet to be tamed.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Defying Gravity! Unprecedented Continuous Bull Move!

The Universe is held in order by gravitational forces. The Market by Levitation (Voodoo)?
Ten Year Treasuries flowing into Equities.
30 Year Treasuries reallocated to the equity markets. Institutional or The Fed?
10 Day, 60 min. - July 23 - Ninth Day of Bull Potato. Some kind of record for endurance. Market is oversold and overextended and overdue for a correction or at least consolidation.
3 Month, Daily - July 23 - Strong level of Resistance has now been broken. Will it now become new support for another leg up? They say that the market can stay over bought and over extended longer than anyone can remain solvent. Caution and common sense are in order.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Train Wreck Junction!

Lots of Blood in Wall Street!
Treasury Spread widens which is Bearish. Will the S&Ps fall in line?
10 Day. 60 min. - July 22 - Eight Day of Bull Potato which is overextended. Market is overdue for a correction to the downside.
3 Month, Daily - July 22 - Trend is still up but there are some "topping signs." So called "topping signs" have a habit recently of being wiped out by Bull moves.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

"Surprises are Fun, but This Market is Ridiculous!"

Market Behavior Confounds Sound Technical Analysis - Some of the Time.
2 Day, 5 m. SPY - July 21 - Using a combination of CCI "Hockey Stick", Weak Internals, and a Roll Over in the Treasury Spread, we identified an Intraday Swing High where we bought Puts. The Internals at that time were strongly negative so we put in an automatic sell order to close with a 20% Gain. This goal coincided with S-1 (Support). The Trade triggered and we were out with our 20% Gain. See Charts Below.
3 Month. Daily - Treasury Spread compared to the S&P Futures are shown above. Note the "Roll Over" in the Chart to the Left. This move was Bearish for the Market in general. The S&P appears overbought and overextended. Note the Oval markers in the CCI. The thought at the time was that the S&P would fall into line with the Spread which it did.
7/21/09 Internals show A/Ds on Left in a downward spiral and the UVOL/DVOL also falling. This combination of price action, internal action, and supporting indicators like the CCI helped bring off this successful trade.
3 Month, Daily - July 21 - The Close of the market today still leaves us in a technical dilemma with multiple choices on what comes next. The situation calls for patience and caution with very careful selection of entry points and size of commitment.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Damn the Torpedoes ....


3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Treasury Spread may be setting up a Bullish Trend. Too early to tell. S&P Futures appear ahead of itself (overbought).
10 Day, 30 min. - July 20 - Bullish Trend and Bull Potato into its Sixth Day.
3 Month, Daily - July 20 - Collision course between the Bullish Trend line and the Resistance Line. MACD and CCI are in the Bullish mode. We need to be defensive at this point. We could theoretically get a strong Bull move or we might get a failure to push through Resistance which is close at hand.

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Lots to Choose From! Ideas Abound!

"It Really is a Crap Shoot."
3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures - "Follow the Money" - The Trend in the Money Flow is Bullish.
20 Day, 60 min. - July 17 - "Cup & Handle / Breakout" invokes Bullish indication for next move.
3 Month, Daily - July 17 - Two Trends to contend with! 2 1/2 month long range bound market with more recent Bullish Trend in place. Next step is on collision with Resistance just above. Note the Gold Spots on MACD and CCI. Both are Bullish but also poised for a possible roll over.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Channel Cat Time?

Faithful to the Territory
3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs S&P Futures. Is it "Roll Over Time" or do we keep going up?
Long Term - July 16 - 2 1/2 Month Long Range Bound Market. Do we stay inside the banks or breakout. Right now we are in the High Tide area of the Range. We will see.
Cup & Handle Formation considered Bullish. This would suggest more upside movement ahead, but this is not set in concrete.

Follow the Money - Change in Direction?

Road Signs Can be Ignored but There May be Bitter Consequences.
3 Month, Daily - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures show money coming out of the mattress flowing back into Equities.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Bulls Will Not Be Denied!

And You Guys Thought We Were On the Run. Check My Action Out.
There are some little blips in the Money Markets that could be significant. Perhaps a trend change may be in the making. It is too soon to tell but bears watching. "Follow the Money."
Same Story with the Treasury ETFs. Treasury Notes are Government Mattresses that serve often serve as places to park money that could be use elsewhere as in the equity markets. When asset allocation happens market behavior can change. Simply needs watching.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 14 - Price action was mostly sideways today with some bullish moves late afternoon. The Channel Trend is still down although the last couple of days have had bullish behavior.
3 Month, Daily - July 14 - Channel Trend is down. Market closed at High Tide within the Channel. MACD & CCI are rising which suggests more bullish moves as opposed to bearish.