Shooting for the Stars

"Seems there's no place else to go."

DBA - Commodity ETF - Weak Dollar and Potential for Inflation combined with drive for alternative energy is escalating commodity prices which is a significant driving force within the broad market. The DBA ETF is an index of Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Oats, and Sugar.
5 Day, 15 min. - Aug. 3 - Stair stepping up. The bears are in pain and nauseated.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Aug. 3 - Unprecedented Bull Run. Always be on guard for the Unexpected.
3 Month, Daily - Aug. 3 - "Bazooka Time" - There are no rules to go by to explain this behavior.

Sleeping Tiger in the Bushes?

"Patience is My Game."

Aug. 2 - 30 Year Treasuries indicate weaker Dollar. The Market has marched in tandem to this index in the past. Is it telling us something?
5 Day, 30 min - July 31 - New support following breakout last week. New Support. Price Action is Coiled like a spring within the Bollinger Bands. Dynamic Move Ahead?
30 D, 2 Hour - July 31 - 15 Day Bull Potato. This is the most extended bull potato in the history of this blog. Totally unprecedented. The market condition is very overbought and technically could benefit by a corrective pull back in order to move forward. The bulls don't seem to want a rest.
3 Month, Daily - July 31 - July was quite a run and most of it was in spite of what most would call bad news. The "market is the market". Trade what you see, not what you think.

Call 911 - The Bears Howl for the Fire Department

Fires Run in Cycles Too. This Cannot Last Forever. Be Alert and on your Toes!

2 Day, 10 min. - July 30 - Japanese Candlesticks can be more easily read and interpreted if viewed in 10 & 15 min. segments. Less than 10 min. creates a chart that is too busy and significant signals can easily be missed. Double bottoms are seen in the chart above and could have been used in decision making.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 30 - Most technical analysts had called for a "Correction" based on the observation of a Head & Shoulders pattern. This proved to be a "Phantom." Instead of a correction, a "Consolidation" sideways pattern developed which in itself is Bullish. There has now been a breakout through overhead resistance which in theory become New Support. This support around 96-97 on the SPY will be tested before the market can move to higher ground (if it does).
6 Month, Daily - July 30 - Longer Term picture is important to keep in mind to maintain perspective. Trading with the Trend can be significantly more successful than trying to Swim against the Tide (sometimes undertow.)

Have We Got a Sleeper in the Works?

"The Trend is Up! Support is in Place. Sideways Consolidation Paves Way for Move Upward? Could Be!

July 29 - Treasury Spread in Tandem with S&P Index. The two seem to run together. The Trend of both is UP!
2 Day, 10 min. - July 29 - Candlesticks work best in the 10 or 15 minute time set-up. Yesterday the CCI and MACD worked in Tandem to support a trade (Gold Spots). Today there was a CCI signal unsupported by a rising MACD therefore no trade taken. It could have worked with some anxiety along the way.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 29 - Bigger Trend is Bullish. Last 5 Days have been sideways. Old Resistance is now New Support @ 97. Consolidation setting up for another move to the upside is a very credible possibility.
6 Month, Daily - July 29 - Breakout with New Support setting up the market to move higher. The market condition is very Overbought and cries out for a correction but the Bulls just won't let go. Overbought markets can stay overbought and irrational for extended periods of time.

Looking for Direction in a Bull Dominated Market

"I'm not at all sure what I am looking at!"

2 Day, 15 m. - July 28 - Hind sight is 20/20. There was a nice trade set up today on the SPY. Following the CCI as a "lead" indicator combined with a "double bottom" on the candles should have triggered a Call play to the upside. A .75 gain or more could have been captured. The MACD was making a turn to the upside as well. The primary trend right now is bullish. The market being overbought mitigates against taking long trades of any size as there is definite risk to the downside. This was an intraday play and not a swing trade over several days. The number one thing to look at is the Trend. A trade against the Trend is far more risky than a trade with the Trend. The second thing to consider is the Market Condition (Overbought vs. Oversold). Then timing the entry using Price Action, Moving Averages, CCI, and Candle Sticks. Other indicators may be used but we have found that it is best to limit the number of indicators as too many will produce "paralysis by over analysis."
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 28 - Overextended and overbought market at this time. This increases the risk of a sudden reversal and lends itself best to looking for entries on a pull back. New long positions at this level are discouraged. Resistance at 96 was broken to the upside. 96 is the new level of Support. "Old Resistance becomes New Support."
3 Month, Daily - July 28 - The market run to the upside has been a huge disappointment to the Bears. Technical Analysis has classically called for a "correction." This has not only failed to develop but the market has charged forward into new territory. 96 is the new Line in the Sand serving as Support. A break down below that level would be decidedly Bearish. Today's session finished on a Bull Note but without clear signals as to direction from here.

The Bulls Stay in Charge!

"I'm on Fire. You Move Over and Get Outta' My Way"

"Follow the Money." The ZZs continue to signal a Higher Market Ahead!

20 Day, 60 min. - July 27 - Channel Trend Continues Bullish and by all standards is way overbought and due for a correction which never seems to come.
3 M, Daily - July 27 - We have had a Breakout above Resistance at 96. This has now become our New Support. The MACD and CCI remain Bullish and Overbought. Most pundits call for a pull back but the market seems to have other ideas. A high probability is that we may go side ways with the 96 serving as Support. We could get a range between 96 and 102 (speculation on my part).

Take a Rocket to the Moon?

The Market has gotten a bit Fanciful - Seems we are on Rocket Ride into Space!

Interesting Chart Comparing the Euro/Dollar relationship to the US Stock Market Index. Very similar pattern. Almost carbon copies of one another. "Follow the Money."
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 24 - Longer Term is the only way to maintain a perspective on the market. Trends are important to the Trader and Investor alike. This is the Tenth day of a Bull Potato and there has been little sign of a slowdown which seems eminent on a daily basis.
3 Month, Daily - Bull Trend has broken significant Resistance. It would appear we are headed into higher territory. At the same time the market is very overbought and long overdue for a correction to the downside. The Bulls have yet to be tamed.

Defying Gravity! Unprecedented Continuous Bull Move!

The Universe is held in order by gravitational forces. The Market by Levitation (Voodoo)?

Ten Year Treasuries flowing into Equities.

30 Year Treasuries reallocated to the equity markets. Institutional or The Fed?

10 Day, 60 min. - July 23 - Ninth Day of Bull Potato. Some kind of record for endurance. Market is oversold and overextended and overdue for a correction or at least consolidation.
3 Month, Daily - July 23 - Strong level of Resistance has now been broken. Will it now become new support for another leg up? They say that the market can stay over bought and over extended longer than anyone can remain solvent. Caution and common sense are in order.

Train Wreck Junction!

Lots of Blood in Wall Street!

Treasury Spread widens which is Bearish. Will the S&Ps fall in line?
10 Day. 60 min. - July 22 - Eight Day of Bull Potato which is overextended. Market is overdue for a correction to the downside.

3 Month, Daily - July 22 - Trend is still up but there are some "topping signs." So called "topping signs" have a habit recently of being wiped out by Bull moves.

"Surprises are Fun, but This Market is Ridiculous!"

Market Behavior Confounds Sound Technical Analysis - Some of the Time.

2 Day, 5 m. SPY - July 21 - Using a combination of CCI "Hockey Stick", Weak Internals, and a Roll Over in the Treasury Spread, we identified an Intraday Swing High where we bought Puts. The Internals at that time were strongly negative so we put in an automatic sell order to close with a 20% Gain. This goal coincided with S-1 (Support). The Trade triggered and we were out with our 20% Gain. See Charts Below.
3 Month. Daily - Treasury Spread compared to the S&P Futures are shown above. Note the "Roll Over" in the Chart to the Left. This move was Bearish for the Market in general. The S&P appears overbought and overextended. Note the Oval markers in the CCI. The thought at the time was that the S&P would fall into line with the Spread which it did.
7/21/09 Internals show A/Ds on Left in a downward spiral and the UVOL/DVOL also falling. This combination of price action, internal action, and supporting indicators like the CCI helped bring off this successful trade.
3 Month, Daily - July 21 - The Close of the market today still leaves us in a technical dilemma with multiple choices on what comes next. The situation calls for patience and caution with very careful selection of entry points and size of commitment.