Asset Reallocation Underway

"There is No Gold in Goldfish - You Guys Look Somewhere Else!"

Click Images to Enlarge Size

3 Month, Daily - July 10 - Treasury Spread continues to widen showing continued flow of money into safety. The Big Boys are putting there money in the Mattress.

For Information on Treasury Spread implications go to ThinkOrSwim.com and in the Chat Rooms, look up the seminar on "Trading Economic Reports."

20 Day, 2 Hour - July 10th. - Keeping an eye on the big picture, the Channel Trend continues down although we are at Low Tide in the channel. The MACD is slightly positive as is the CCI. This suggests the possibility of a temporary bounce back up into Mid Channel.
3 Month, Daily - July 10 - There has been a Four Week decline in the market with the Trend still pointed down. The recent Head & Shoulders has broken the Neckline and this move is consistent with more downside to come. At the same time we have been in a Range Bound market that has been favorable for Iron Condors and Spreads.

Bouncing Off of Support

"I've got plans to crash the Party!"

3 M, Daily - July 9 - /ZT-/ZN & /ES - A lot of parallel activity here. The Treasury Spread on the Left confirms the S&P on the Right. Today we had a small correction in both to the upside. Tomorrow is another day. The market closed on a weak note on Thursday.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 9 - Channel Trend for the period is down. Today we had an early bounce followed by a choppy market. The market is in the lower portion of the channel which begs for more upward bounce but there are also suggestions of more weakness to come.
3 Month, Daily - July 9 - The month of June has been in a Bear Channel. Friday could see a bounce into the gold spot, but there is a real possibility of downward movement if money continues to move into the safety of Treasury Notes. The Trend of the Treasury Spread in the morning might be helpful in confirming direction.

Head & Shoulders Resolves to the Downside

As Soon as the Party begins, the Bulls try to Horn In.

(Click on Images to enlarge)

3 Month, Daily - July 8 - Treasury Spread widens reinforcing the Bears. There is a flight to safety right now with money moving out of equities. Compare the Spread on the Left with the S&P on the Right. They are mirror images of one another confirming the downward move.
10 Day, 30 min. - July 8 - Trend is down. Notice the bounce off of the S-2 Support. We had the usual late day rally into the close which has the smell of voodoo.
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 8 - Trend Channel is Down. Close today was at the lower support of the channel. This suggests the possibility of a bounce on Thursday. MACD is Red (Bearish).
3 Month, Daily - July 8 - It is always wise to look at multiple timeframes. The longer term gives us a view of the action from 30,000 feet. The Channel Trend during the entire month of June has been Bearish and remains that way. This trend is confirmed in the Treasury Spread (/ZT-/ZN). This has proven so far to be a very reliable indicator and we plan to continue to use it as long as it remains reliable.

The Bears are Back in Town

"Bully Bear" is ready to put up a fight!

3 Month, Daily - July 7 - Two & Ten Year Treasury Spread can give you a solid directional indictor. Compare the Bond Spread and the S&P Futures in the chart above. Pay close attention to the MACD in the Bond Spread. Notice the greater volatility in the S&P. This concept is fully covered in the Trader Lounge Seminars on ThinkOrSwim (dated July 1).
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 7 - The channel trend is down. Today's market action took out some important prior support. Note the negative MACD histogram.
5 D, 15 min. - July 7 - Weak close today in a down trending market. There are "fake outs" along the way but keeping one eye on the Bond Spread will steady the nerves and keep a trader on track.

Traps and Tribulations!

The Market Action Defies Reason

3 M, Daily - When things turn bizarre, look the the 3 Month, Hourly for security and direction.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 7 - The action today was bullish but the longer term trend in down.

Follow the Money - Treasury Spread vs. S&P Futures

Happy Fourth of July to the USA

Treasury Spread compared to S&P Futures. Compare the MACDs. "Follow the Money" would seem to be at work here. What happens in the money markets translate to Equities. What happens on the Left creates a mirror image on the Right. The Treasury market is less volatile and presents a smoother picture. Jack Bouroudjian held a ThinkOrSwim seminar on this subject which is archived in the Shadow Lounge. This is interesting stuff for traders and investors.

Treasury Note Spread can Point the Way

The Spread between 2 Year & 10 Year Treasuries can point the way in the Equity Markets. Capital allocation to different markets indicate Money Flow Direction. The old adage of "Watch the Money" play a big part here. More information on this is available at Think or Swim in the Shadow Lounge section under Seminars. This one is dated July 1. I highly recommend it to those who are interested.
Remarkable Comparisons of Pattern. Note the less volatile action on the left as compared to the S&P on the right.
3 Month, Daily - July 2 - Pay close attention to the MACD as to entry / exit points.

The Long Awaited Pull Back Appears at Hand

Happy Fourth of July to Everyone. Remember Our Soldiers Overseas.

3 Month, Daily - July 2 - "ZT-ZN" Spread between 2 Year Treasuries and 10 Year Treasuries point to a bearish move in the market. The MACD supports this indication. This Spread can be used to confirm more volatile moves in the market. It is less volatile and less emotional than the equity markets. Compare this chart with the SPY below.
3 Month, Daily - July 2 - Notice how the channel compares with the Treasury Spread. This Spread can be used to confirm intermediate trends and the A/D's and Internals used on a Day Trade or Swing Trade to keep you on the right side of the trade.
20 Day, 15 min. - July 2 - The move today was right in keeping with the Treasury Markets. The gap down and continuing trend lower was a mirror image of the pattern set by the Treasury Spread. The Trend and MACD both indicate probable continuation to the downside, but never discount the possibility of the "unexpected."

The Bull - Bear Battle Continues

Range Bound Market Begging for a Demonstration Breakout

5 Day, 15 min - July 1 - The Channel Trend remains Bullish but there are undercurrents of Bear Unrest. Traders continue to get jerked around. This is excellent territory for Condor enthusiasts.
60 Day, 2 Hr. - July 1 - Long Term vs. Short Term = Sideways
/ZT-/ZN - July 1 - Two Year Treasuries vs. Ten Year Treasuries. There is a strong comparison of Treasury Rates and Market Action. Compare this Chart with the 3 Month Daily SPY below.
3 Month, Daily - July 1 - Recent erosion of upward trend closely parallels the Treasury rates which portrays the Money Flow. "Follow the Money."

Market Crossroad

Trends, Currents, & Cross Currents - Confusing Road Signs Abound

60D, 2 Hour - June 30 - When the picture is mixed short term, it is best to look at longer term charts. The Longer Term Trend remains up but there are significant indications that the momentum may be broken and we could head lower.
3 Month, Daily - June 30 - The Trend is Our Friend and should not be ignored. Always expect the market to do the unexpected.