2 Day, 10 min. - Aug. 6 - A/Ds were bearish and mitigated against long positions in spite of good signals to enter the market (Gold Spots).
20 Day, 2 Hour - Aug. 6 - Bullish Trend remains intact. A break is likely to come and it may be sudden and dramatic. Defending your long positions is imperative.
3 Month, Daily - Aug. 6 - Technicals have yet to signal a turnaround. A sudden reversal may be all that you see.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Aug. 5 - No break in the trend as yet.
3 Month, Daily - Aug. 5 - There is nothing to explain this market other than emotional euphoria built on momentum. It would not be surprising to see a sharp correction at some point.
5 Day, 15 min. - Aug. 4 - Nothing seems to step in the way of this move. The market is way overbought and over extended. A correction of pause continues to be expected. "When" is the question.
20 Day, 60 min. - Aug. 4 - There should be a Flag run up a pole real soon.
3 Month, Daily - Even the bigger picture is dominated by this move of the last 3 weeks.
DBA - Commodity ETF - Weak Dollar and Potential for Inflation combined with drive for alternative energy is escalating commodity prices which is a significant driving force within the broad market. The DBA ETF is an index of Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Oats, and Sugar.
5 Day, 15 min. - Aug. 3 - Stair stepping up. The bears are in pain and nauseated.
20 Day, 2 Hour - Aug. 3 - Unprecedented Bull Run. Always be on guard for the Unexpected.
3 Month, Daily - Aug. 3 - "Bazooka Time" - There are no rules to go by to explain this behavior.
Aug. 2 - 30 Year Treasuries indicate weaker Dollar. The Market has marched in tandem to this index in the past. Is it telling us something?
5 Day, 30 min - July 31 - New support following breakout last week. New Support. Price Action is Coiled like a spring within the Bollinger Bands. Dynamic Move Ahead?
30 D, 2 Hour - July 31 - 15 Day Bull Potato. This is the most extended bull potato in the history of this blog. Totally unprecedented. The market condition is very overbought and technically could benefit by a corrective pull back in order to move forward. The bulls don't seem to want a rest.
3 Month, Daily - July 31 - July was quite a run and most of it was in spite of what most would call bad news. The "market is the market". Trade what you see, not what you think.
2 Day, 10 min. - July 30 - Japanese Candlesticks can be more easily read and interpreted if viewed in 10 & 15 min. segments. Less than 10 min. creates a chart that is too busy and significant signals can easily be missed. Double bottoms are seen in the chart above and could have been used in decision making.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 30 - Most technical analysts had called for a "Correction" based on the observation of a Head & Shoulders pattern. This proved to be a "Phantom." Instead of a correction, a "Consolidation" sideways pattern developed which in itself is Bullish. There has now been a breakout through overhead resistance which in theory become New Support. This support around 96-97 on the SPY will be tested before the market can move to higher ground (if it does).
6 Month, Daily - July 30 - Longer Term picture is important to keep in mind to maintain perspective. Trading with the Trend can be significantly more successful than trying to Swim against the Tide (sometimes undertow.)
July 29 - Treasury Spread in Tandem with S&P Index. The two seem to run together. The Trend of both is UP!
2 Day, 10 min. - July 29 - Candlesticks work best in the 10 or 15 minute time set-up. Yesterday the CCI and MACD worked in Tandem to support a trade (Gold Spots). Today there was a CCI signal unsupported by a rising MACD therefore no trade taken. It could have worked with some anxiety along the way.
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 29 - Bigger Trend is Bullish. Last 5 Days have been sideways. Old Resistance is now New Support @ 97. Consolidation setting up for another move to the upside is a very credible possibility.
6 Month, Daily - July 29 - Breakout with New Support setting up the market to move higher. The market condition is very Overbought and cries out for a correction but the Bulls just won't let go. Overbought markets can stay overbought and irrational for extended periods of time.
2 Day, 15 m. - July 28 - Hind sight is 20/20. There was a nice trade set up today on the SPY. Following the CCI as a "lead" indicator combined with a "double bottom" on the candles should have triggered a Call play to the upside. A .75 gain or more could have been captured. The MACD was making a turn to the upside as well. The primary trend right now is bullish. The market being overbought mitigates against taking long trades of any size as there is definite risk to the downside. This was an intraday play and not a swing trade over several days. The number one thing to look at is the Trend. A trade against the Trend is far more risky than a trade with the Trend. The second thing to consider is the Market Condition (Overbought vs. Oversold). Then timing the entry using Price Action, Moving Averages, CCI, and Candle Sticks. Other indicators may be used but we have found that it is best to limit the number of indicators as too many will produce "paralysis by over analysis."
30 Day, 2 Hour - July 28 - Overextended and overbought market at this time. This increases the risk of a sudden reversal and lends itself best to looking for entries on a pull back. New long positions at this level are discouraged. Resistance at 96 was broken to the upside. 96 is the new level of Support. "Old Resistance becomes New Support."
3 Month, Daily - July 28 - The market run to the upside has been a huge disappointment to the Bears. Technical Analysis has classically called for a "correction." This has not only failed to develop but the market has charged forward into new territory. 96 is the new Line in the Sand serving as Support. A break down below that level would be decidedly Bearish. Today's session finished on a Bull Note but without clear signals as to direction from here.
20 Day, 60 min. - July 27 - Channel Trend Continues Bullish and by all standards is way overbought and due for a correction which never seems to come.
3 M, Daily - July 27 - We have had a Breakout above Resistance at 96. This has now become our New Support. The MACD and CCI remain Bullish and Overbought. Most pundits call for a pull back but the market seems to have other ideas. A high probability is that we may go side ways with the 96 serving as Support. We could get a range between 96 and 102 (speculation on my part).
Interesting Chart Comparing the Euro/Dollar relationship to the US Stock Market Index. Very similar pattern. Almost carbon copies of one another. "Follow the Money."
20 Day, 2 Hour - July 24 - Longer Term is the only way to maintain a perspective on the market. Trends are important to the Trader and Investor alike. This is the Tenth day of a Bull Potato and there has been little sign of a slowdown which seems eminent on a daily basis.
3 Month, Daily - Bull Trend has broken significant Resistance. It would appear we are headed into higher territory. At the same time the market is very overbought and long overdue for a correction to the downside. The Bulls have yet to be tamed.
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